The S&P500 starts the New Year in a global bear market, which began at the end of last January, and sitting just a few points below a key Fibonacci retracement level at 2508.94. Interestingly, the New Year’s Eve rally could not hold that level.
Major technical damage to the S&P was done while we were out during the past few weeks. The close below the 2404.22 last week even puts the secular trend from the Mark of the Beast 666 generational low in play.
To the upside, we first need a close above the 2508.94, and then to take out the 20-day at 2476.95. Very doable.
Levels to watch on the downside are Friday’s low at 2472.89, a close below Friday’s close at 2485.74, Thursday’s low of 2397.94, the .50 Fibo at 2375.50, the 20 percent correction level at 2352.73, and the recent low of 2346.58.
Gun to head? Possible 2-5 percent more in the bounce for a trade, especially if China trade deal noise is turned up, but wouldn’t put medium-term money to work here. Capital preservation mode with a short trade bias and will reconsider if S&P recaptures its 50-day moving average at 2660.
Good luck in 2019, folks.