Taking a break from Holy Week to sift through the Mueller Report.
It is going to be very difficult, in our opinion, for the House Judiciary Committee (HJC) not to proceed with impeachment hearings. If they begin, the Democrats will have the votes in the House to impeach (simple majority), which is a necessary condition but not sufficient for the removal of President Trump from office. Conviction in the Senate will take 67 votes, thus we estimate it will take 20-22 Republicans votes.
We’re not making a political statement or being partisan but just trying to give our readers a heads up on the results of our brief analysis and how we see it playing out. The odds of impeachment have gone from around 6:1 to 4:1 in the past two weeks.
We expect the market price at PredictIt to move up another 30-50 percent in the next few weeks, or 3:1 odds for impeachment. Don’t think your gonna make that in Amazon in two weeks, though the shares might get an impeachment bump.
Speaker Pelosi is on record saying the votes aren’t there in the Senate and impeaching the President is futile and could come with a high political cost. The release of the Mueller Report now ratchets up pressure on House Democrats to “perform their constitutional duties.” Tough political spot.
The stock market, and markets in general, probably won’t start paying attention until HJC Chairman Jerry Nadler makes the announcement to proceed with hearings, which could be after Rober Mueller testifies.
Place your bets and pray for the country.