Some Background On China Trade Talks

Some perspective from a prior post on President Trump’s predisposition toward free trade.

We hope for a good trade deal and China caves on everything.  We also hope for the end of poverty, world peace, and everyone to self actualize this year but will it happen?

Come on, man, let’s be realistic.  China’s not about to give up it’s sovereignty to Trump.  See our post from yesterday.

In my experience in participating in and negotiating several multibillion sovereign debt restructurings, a good and doable deal is one where both sides win more than they give up yet at the same time both sides are not entirely jubilant with the final outcome.

…in a long-term relationship with the other party, drive for a win-win. Exercise caution driving for a win-lose. People [and Countries] have long memories, and you might encounter them again, perhaps when they are in a position of relative strength. — BizJournals

Trump is notorious for driving for a win-lose outcome.  Xi will having nothing to do with it.

No Free Trader In The White House

.

Yesterday’s NY Times guest Op/Ed confirmed our suspicions about President Trump,

Furthermore,  we don’t believe President Trump is a free trader at heart but more of a protectionist and neo-mercantilist.  There is no “Art of the Deal” – see his waffling on immigration  – and no method to the administration ’s madness to negotiating anything, for that matter,  but only driven by impulse and myopia.  — Global Macro Monitor, June 24, 2018

Anyone who works with him knows he is not moored to any discernible first principles that guide his decision making….President Trump’s impulses are generally anti-trade and anti-democratic.  – Anonymous,  NY Times,  September 5, 2018

Today it’s solidified,

The market has been in complete denial on this issue dismissing the trade war rhetoric as “Art of the Deal” nonsense.   We suspect the market is in for a nasty reckoning when they have their epiphany.  Stay tuned.

(updated Sept. 7, 2:22 eastern)

Trump Letter

 

Trump Letter_2

Source:  Daily Mail

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