When a headline like this appears in the Washington Post it is probably is no longer a 6 Sigma event, i.e, the odds of it happening are 500 million to 1.

Recall the political scenario we laid out in May 2017,

Contemplate this 6 sigma scenario:

Bad news for Trump continues to leak out and staffers and acquaintances are indicted all through the rest of 2017 and 2018.   The Democrats take the House and Senate in a landslide in November 2018.

Impeachment charges are brought both against President Trump and Vice President Pence, say, as a co-conspirator on obstruction of justice charges in the firing of James Comey.

It’s 2019 and the Dems control the House and the Senate with comfortable majorities.

The House impeaches the President and Vice President.   The Senate convicts both.

Who is next in line to assume the Presidency?   The Speaker of the House,  Nancy Pelosi?  – Global Macro Monitor, May 18, 2017

Maybe the scenario is now a 4 Sigma event, or 16k to 1 odds.

This new scandal is unraveling quickly and has now sucked in Secretary of State Pompeo, who is 4th in the line of presidential succession.

Nothing but crickets from Vice President Pence since the news of the Ukraine scandal broke and after what appeared to be President Trump throwing him under the bus.

Civil War

If, now the 4 Sigma event, does seem to be even remotely close to becoming The Event, it’s time to fear the American Street, folks.

We wonder who are the 3 percent of American adults who own a collective 133m firearms – half of America’s total gun stock?   We do have our suspicions.

Who knows what he is thinking, but POTUS does seem to be already dog-whistling.

At best, this is incredibly irresponsible and totally reckless, and could even be grounds for impeachment.

One Of Our 2019 Tail Events

In early January we posted,  2019’s Five Most Mispriced Tail Events.   The top of the list?

1. Trump Leaves Office By Year-End
   There is only one thing Trump likes more than power – money.  As his legal troubles grow exponentially in 2019, the president has an epiphany that he could lose all his wealth.  He cuts a Spiro Agnew-like deal and resigns from office in return for leniency.   The markets rally into the announcement but Trump doesn’t go easy and dog whistles to his base as he hits the exit.  The U.S. experiences a period of political and social instability.   Stocks sell-off hard.

Does anyone have a clue how fragile, unstable, and how thin the ice just might be?

Do you think any of this is priced?  If feels like things are about to get nonlinear.