You Heard It Here First
We suspect a Blue 1980-ish outcome in the popular vote where Trump wins around 41 percent of the popular vote (close to where he is currently polling), which is about the same percentage as President Carter won, but wins a bit more than the six states than Carter did in the electoral college. – Global Macro Monitor, April 13
If markets were efficient, there should be massive tax selling or front running of the almost doubling of the capital gains tax for the stock ownership class that is coming in a Biden Administration. Not the case. so far, as markets have been nationalized and do not reflect even a speck fundamental value.
The Wall Street cheerleaders always find a way spin everything bullish because their bonus depends on it.
Ridding the world of Trump is good for the world, the country, and my children.
Have no delusions, however, a Biden Administration with Democrats controlling both Houses of Congress will not be kind to Capital. Though the election result will be similar to 1980, the political and economic policies to come will be the polar opposites.
Nevertheless, I still think the tax front running selling is coming in the next few months unless the stock market is signally hyperinflation, which is not a zero probability. The Fed’s relentless propping up of asset markets has created an endgame of what economist’s call “corner solutions.” Fire or ice, hyperinflation or deflation. Brace yourselves.