Yearly Archives: 2023

In our opinion, the economy’s unexpected mojo and sticky inflation can be explained in two simple macro charts.  M2 as a percent of GDP remains freakishly high, though we don’t put much stock in the old monetary aggregates, and Household … Continue reading →

Wow!  The wing-nuts are coming for AI and ChatGPT…err…WokeGPT. Prepare for an invasion of the Luddites.  Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, for instance, has called attention to conservative complaints that the AI refused to write a song praising him, but it … Continue reading →

We hear a lot of chatter these days about how the money supply, as defined by M2, is now contracting at an unprecedented rate.  We don’t put much stock in the monetary aggregates as the functional term, and variable “money” … Continue reading →

All kinds of technical reasons to be bullish.  As we noted Friday, watch for a break out above the 4100.96, the December high, and the top of the trading range. .  The index traded almost to its key .50 fib … Continue reading →

QOTD = Quote of the Day Oh, dear!  I wonder if the FOMC is looking at the deflationary bust in virtual real estate?  Will Jay Powell mention it in his presser today? Do you think real estate in the metaverse … Continue reading →

The following chart suggests the stock market still has an outsized influence on the economy.  In theory, the market capitalization to GDP ratio should be a mean reverting time series.   We don’t know for certain, but we suspect there is … Continue reading →