Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Euro Crisis: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Posted on April 19, 2012 by macromon

Lorenzo Bini Smagi,  former Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, nails it, You call it austerity, i would call it putting your house in order. You can’t grow especially if you have a deficit which is … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Government Gross Financing Needs

Posted on April 19, 2012 by macromon

The latest data from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor.  Read it and gulp!  Then fire up the printing presses. Click on the tables to enlarge and for better resolution. (click here if tables are not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Spanish Yields Move Higher After Auction

Posted on April 19, 2012 by macromon

(click here if chart and video are not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Enter French Politics

Posted on April 18, 2012 by macromon

President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Francois Hollande will likely emerge Sunday as the top two vote-getters in the first round of France’s Presidential election.  The run-off is set for May 6th.  Intrade gives Hollande more than an 80 percent … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Fiscal Health of Nations: General Govt Balance

Posted on April 17, 2012 by macromon

The IMF is out with their Fiscal Monitor today.  Great stats.  Here is a comparison of the fiscal health of the world’s economies. Contrast Norway and Saudi (both oil exporters) with, say,  the U.S. and Japan.  Italy doesn’t look so … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Economics, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Spanish 10-year Closes Above 6 percent

Posted on April 16, 2012 by macromon

(click here if chart and video are not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Inflation Convergence and Real Earnings

Posted on April 16, 2012 by macromon

The BLS chart clearly illustrates the convergence of core (x/ food and energy) inflation and all items.   Core inflation is up 2.3 percent y/y, which is a little hot given its recent history.  Here’s the BLS commentary, The index … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Employment, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: Italy Sliding

Posted on April 13, 2012 by macromon

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Chart of the Day, Charts, Economics, Euro, PIIGS | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Sovereign Debt Holdings By Type of Investor

Posted on April 11, 2012 by macromon

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)  is out with an update of their Global Financial Stability Report, which includes the following graphic of sovereign debt holders of the big three issuers and the Euro area.   The IMF notes, …In the United … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Depression in the European Periphery

Posted on April 11, 2012 by macromon

Nice chart and analysis from the New York Fed’s blog, The chart also shows that the current economic situation is much weaker in several euro-area periphery countries. The recession in Greece has yet to end, and real GDP is now … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment