Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Nassim Taleb: The Next Black Swan

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

In case you missed Nassim Taleb’s interview on CNBC this morning. He endorsed Ron Paul and is a bit cryptic in his four points, one of which,  that a sovereign debt crisis is coming to the United States.   Rather than … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Interviews, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

S&P500 Breakout & The Ambiguity of Stock Value

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

Today has to be the least appreciated breakout that’s ever happened.   Tonight’s Fast Money crowd, for example, described it as the long awaited blow-off top.  You know, the same guy that has been wrong for the last 600 S&P points … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Stratfor: Enforceability and Credibility in the EU

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

No street cred?   Double standard? Take a look at this piece at Spiegel Online on how even Germany is violating its own austerity measures, SPIEGEL reports this week that the German government didn’t reach even half of its planned savings … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Charlie Rose: Christine Lagarde

Posted on March 12, 2012 by macromon

Good interview with the IMF’s Christine Lagarde.  They discuss a wide range of topics, including the Greece debt swap, the two Super Marios of Europe, the “new Italian Renaissance,” and the future of the International Monetary Fund.  Well worth your … Continue reading →

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Dollar/Yen Clears Resistance, Next Stop 85.5

Posted on March 9, 2012 by macromon

Dollar/yen cleared the top of the resistance zone, which we identified in our last post.   Note the rocket ship to a 10-month high after retesting the generational low in February. We’re in the process of constructing a Weekly Japan Sustainability … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Japan | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Euro Fracture: Italian Workers Rock Monti’s World

Posted on March 9, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Employment, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Greece Debt Swap Surprises, Great Deal for the Country

Posted on March 8, 2012 by macromon

The FT is reporting, The largest debt restructuring in history was heading for a successful outcome last night as Greece looked set to see a participation rate of close to 95 per cent for its €206bn bond exchange. One person … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Greece CDS Exposure

Posted on March 8, 2012 by macromon

Nice chart from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s Telegraph piece.   One would expect a relatively small first order effect if Greek CDS’ are triggered.   The second order effects,  such as contagion and the ding to market confidence are much more difficult to quantify … Continue reading →

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Major Holders of Japanese Govt Bonds (JGBs)

Posted on March 7, 2012 by macromon

Note the central bank holdings are increasing significantly . (click here if chart is not observable)

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The Great Sovereign Debt Enabler: Low Interest Rates

Posted on March 6, 2012 by macromon

(click here if charts are not observable)

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