Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Germany’s fiscal solidarity plan for EU approved

Posted on January 30, 2012 by macromon

Domestic political blowback to follow.  Stay tuned. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Global Markets: One Large Complex Adaptive System

Posted on January 30, 2012 by macromon

We once read somewhere that there are 10 to the 180th power possible paths to checkmate in a game of chess.   Similarly,  the global markets are one large complex adaptive system and almost impossible to project their short-term macro … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, German Bund, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Sovereign Debt Hygienics

Posted on January 29, 2012 by macromon

Interesting calculations posted by Spiegel from the Kiel Institute on the sovereign haircuts which would make the debt of the listed countries sustainable.   We would love to see the calculations for the U.S., U.K., and Japan. (click here if charts … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Italian Yields, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Clash of Generations: A Discussion in Davos

Posted on January 29, 2012 by macromon

We’ve posted several pieces on the coming war between the generations and even how the Occupy Wall Street and Arab Spring are more about intergenerational equity than anything else.   Here’s an interesting discussion from Davos for those who have … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics, Employment | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Euro Fracture: Europe’s Biggest Risk…

Posted on January 29, 2012 by macromon

Now that a financial systemic collapse has been taken off the table with LTRO, it’s reform backlash/fatigue and political risk.   The AP writes this morning, Instead of a beacon for a better future, many Europeans are starting to see the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Stratfor: Eurozone Prepares to Eject Greece

Posted on January 27, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Lagarde: The Trillion Dollar Woman and Best IMF Chief Ever?

Posted on January 26, 2012 by macromon

We like this woman  We think she could be the best IMF Chief ever.    Stay tuned. Newsweek: In a dramatic speech in Berlin this week, the IMF chief warned that the world could soon face another Great Depression, calling for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Greece debt talks come down to the wire

Posted on January 26, 2012 by macromon

It’s a done deal.  Everything else is noise.  Seriously, do you think the deal will tank over a couple of basis points? (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

The U.S. Wage Gap

Posted on January 26, 2012 by macromon

Interesting chart from the BLS on the U.S. wage gap by race, age, and gender.  Whatever the cause, it shows the U.S. still has a lot of work to do in closing these gaps through increasing the relative productivity of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics, Economics, Employment | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Merkel tells Davos that Europe must reform

Posted on January 25, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment