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Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
Italy’s Monti to Focus on Growth
(click here if video in not observable)
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro
Tagged European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Italy, Mario Monti
2 Comments
Eurozone Sovereign Spread Tightening
After the better than expected Spanish bond auction, eurozone sovereign spreads have come in significantly today. The widely watched Italian 10-year bond yield fell to 6.63 percent. The return of confidence, in our opinion, is the continuation of the markets’ … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged bonds, Euro, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Germany, Italy, Spain, Spreads
2 Comments
The Shanghai Bounce
The Shanghai has put in its best two day performance since September ’09, rising 5.8 percent. After its post crash peak in August 2009, Chinese stocks have fallen almost 40 percent before hitting their lows last Friday. Expectations of monetary … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Global Stock Performance
Tagged A-Share, Chinese New Year, Citibank, S&P500, Shanghai
Leave a comment
Eurozone bond auctions kick off
“Not a good auction, but not a surprise.” (click here if video is not observable)
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Debt Auctions, European Sovereign Debt Crisis
3 Comments
A Tale of Two Markets
The Shanghai has turned down this evening after opening up and looks to continue the downtrend. That is one ugly chart. Meanwhile, the S&P500 looks like it really wants to resolve its wedge formation to the upside. After a year … Continue reading
How Dependent is the U.S. on Persian Gulf Oil?
With tensions heating up over Iran (recall our November 5th post, Is Iran About to Get Hot) we’re seeing lots of traffic on our post of last February, U.S. Dependent on Middle East Oil? Think Again. Our sense is that most … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Crude Oil
Tagged Iran, Persian Gulf, U.S. Fifth Fleet, U.S. Oil Imports
1 Comment
NorKo’s Kim 3.0
Interesting video but lite on specifics. Let’s hope the hope about North Korea’s new leader is fully realized. (click here if video is not observable)
Are the Markets Driving European Politics?
Der Spiegel poses the question to former Deutsche Bank CEO Hilmar Kopper in an interesting interview. SPIEGEL: The markets are driving politics, leaving no doubt as to who is really in charge. Kopper: I think that’s nonsense. Why does the … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Whales
Tagged Deutsche Bank, Euopean politics, Euorpe, Euro, Hilmar Kopper
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The Haunting (of the Sovereign Bonds)
A consistent theme we have heard over and over this year is that there is no credit risk for a sovereign borrower that has an independent central bank and can resort to debt monetization. Even Martin Fedstein in his excellent … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged bonds, Sovereign Credit, Sovereign Risk
5 Comments
Euro Swan Dives Splashes Santa
This morning’s swan dive in the euro stopped the Santa rally right in its tracks. We have two questions: 1) Has the ECB shot its wad as the lender of last resort providing massive liquidity to the banking system and … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro
Tagged ECB, Euro, Mario Draghi, S&P500, Santa Claus Rally
1 Comment
Global Macro Monitor 