Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Flight to Quality Funding of the U.S. Budget Deficit

Posted on December 13, 2011 by macromon

As we suspected in our last update in September, the flight to quality funding of the U.S. budget deficit would replace the end of QE2 and almost 100 percent indirect financing of the deficit by the Federal Reserve.  Looking at … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy | Tagged , | 1 Comment

BBC: Top economists reveal their graphs of 2011

Posted on December 13, 2011 by macromon

The BBC contacted us earlier in the week about our September post, La Grande Divergence, which included the following chart.   Vicky Pryce, the influential U.K. economist, liked enough to choose it as her favorite of the year.  BBC journalists will … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Charle Rose: Robert Rubin on the European Debt Crisis

Posted on December 12, 2011 by macromon

Good interview with Gillian Tett of the Financial Times and Robert Rubin, former United States Secretary of the Treasury on the European Debt Crisis.  Rubin does make a good point 19:45 minutes into the discussion about Mario Draghi’s debt monetization … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

China’s Deflating Housing Bubble

Posted on December 12, 2011 by macromon

Much of China’s rapid credit — 33 percent in 2009 — as part of its massive stimulus program was directed into nonproductive sectors.   Balance sheet risks have increased.   Sound familiar? This could be next year’s big bad story.    Commodities … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Wither Commerzbank

Posted on December 12, 2011 by macromon

As the markets digest the Reuters report Commerzbank is seeking more state aid here’s  an interesting graphic from Der Spiegel.   Where’s that hidden bazooka? (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Italy Works Over 20% More Hours Than Germany and France

Posted on December 12, 2011 by macromon

The stereotype of lazy southern Europe and the hard working North is just not reflected in the data.   We came across this BLS data set over the weekend which was very enlightening and, in part, smashes this widely held generalization. … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Employment, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

Interview: Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti

Posted on December 11, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Tough Christmas in Greece

Posted on December 9, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS | Tagged , | 1 Comment

The EU’s Camouflaged Bazooka?

Posted on December 9, 2011 by macromon

Many were disappointed that the EU Summit didn’t conclude with a hard number backstop for the ‘zone’s sovereign debt rolling over next year.   We believe if you scratch the surface the bazooka is there. The EU President, Herman Van Rompuy, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 8 Comments

Europe Needs An Iron Lady

Posted on December 8, 2011 by macromon

As Europe “goes wobbly” they could use an Iron Lady. (click here if video is not not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, General Interest, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment