Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

The 18-year Round-trip Journey of Greek Bond Yields

Posted on October 9, 2011 by macromon

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Italians Protest Austerity

Posted on October 9, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Italy and Spain Downgraded by Fitch

Posted on October 7, 2011 by macromon

The ratings agencies are a complete joke, the last to the party, and usually a contrarian signal, but the Fitch downgrade did cause some market volatility today.   What concerns us more is that Moody’s has put Belgium on watch for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Local Government Financing in China

Posted on October 6, 2011 by macromon

Yikes!  Look what California’s dependence on tax revenues from the dot.com and housing bubbles did to that state’s fiscal health.   We’re going to see some fugly naked bodies when the tide recedes in China.   Keep this one on your … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Muni Market, State and Local Government | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Angry Greeks

Posted on October 6, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Occupy Wall Street and the Nobel Peace Prize

Posted on October 6, 2011 by macromon

Tomorrow’s announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize could give the OWS movement a mega shot of caffeine Red Bull (great pun!).    The Washington Post confirms our priors, Leading Nobel-guesser Kristian Berg Harpviken, the director of the Peace Research Institute in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Bank Problem

Posted on October 6, 2011 by macromon

Another informative chart from the IMF showing the fundamental problem in Europe’s banking system –  excessive leverage and dependence on wholesale funding.  Add to that  overexposure to highly indebted sovereigns with deteriorating credit fundamentals.    It also illustrates why the German … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Global Stock Performance, Global Trend Indicators, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Why Moody’s cut Italy’s credit rating

Posted on October 5, 2011 by macromon

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

China Notes from the Yum! Brands Earnings Call

Posted on October 5, 2011 by macromon

Today’s Yum! Brands’ earnings conference call was dominated by China.  Management talked a lot about commodity inflation running around 8 percent and 20% labor inflation, which they do not yet see abating.   This doesn’t square with the August official inflation … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment