Category Archives: Bonds

Is the Fed ready for the bond market’s Arab Spring?

Posted on February 16, 2012 by macromon

We’ve updated our database of the Federal Reserve’s ownership of the U.S. Treasury coupon curve.  The resulting chart highlights a couple of interesting issues about its structure and holdings of outstanding notes and bonds. First, though nothing new, it shows … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Worldwide Debt

Posted on February 14, 2012 by macromon

Shocking chart from Jeffery Gundlach’s  “Fall of the Roman Empire” presentation. Looks like the global central banks’ balance sheet expansion is only in the first inning.   Not by choice but by necessity. Freakin’ stunning! Click on chart to enlarge … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Ugly Chart Contest

Posted on January 22, 2012 by macromon

Well not so ugly.  The dollar index is hovering around its short-term trend, but is now below the 20-day sma.  No clear break of trend yet. Crude looks like it is rolling over.  We heard Fareed Zakaria say on his … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Crude Oil, Dollar, Ugly Chart Contest | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The Haunting (of the Sovereign Bonds)

Posted on December 29, 2011 by macromon

A consistent theme we have heard over and over this year is that there is no credit risk for a sovereign borrower that has an independent central bank and can resort to debt monetization.   Even Martin Fedstein in his excellent … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Flight to Quality Funding of the U.S. Budget Deficit

Posted on December 13, 2011 by macromon

As we suspected in our last update in September, the flight to quality funding of the U.S. budget deficit would replace the end of QE2 and almost 100 percent indirect financing of the deficit by the Federal Reserve.  Looking at … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Spread Compression in Europe

Posted on December 1, 2011 by macromon

Not enough, surely some of it engineered,  but moving in the right direction.  Some of the move has been the rise in the German 10-year yield.   Look at the big move in France-Germany, now below 100 bps.  The big … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rajoy’s rise as Spain slumps

Posted on November 20, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Draghi: Where’s the Beef?

Posted on November 18, 2011 by macromon

ECB President, Mario Draghi, gave his first official speech outside the Eurozone’s  central bank and asked EU policymakers “where is the implementation” of past decisions to beef up the EFSF.    The ECB is in a difficult position and has to … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

The Consequences of Euro Debt Monetization

Posted on November 17, 2011 by macromon

As the pressure on ECB grows to step up its “bid of last resort” for European sovereign bonds, the folks over at Zero Hedge ask the very important question what are consequences if the ‘zone  resorts to massive debt monetization?    … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Dollar, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

The Biggest Bubble in History?

Posted on November 14, 2011 by macromon

We are baffled by the analysis of the analyst community, some, of which, are not so analytical.  They say that  Europe’s fundamental problem is that it  has a central bank which is unwilling to monetize sizeable debt maturities which bondholders … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , , , , , | 17 Comments