Feb.01 — Billionaire Ray Dalio, who in November was bullish on the incoming president’s ability to stimulate the economy, is now saying he’s more concerned that the damaging effects of Trump’s populist policies may overwhelm the benefits of his pro-business agenda. Bloomberg’s Simone Foxman reports on “Bloomberg Markets.”
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Recall we warned of the “Bad Trump” policies lurking in our post,“Good Trump” Catapults Dow To 20K As “Bad Trump” Lurks.
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But keep in mind there are some very nasty policy proposals lurking out there and, if realized, will cause a world of hurt for the global markets and economy.
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The prospects of the “Good Trump” policies, tax cuts, deregulation, etc., should keep markets afloat and jam them higher when implemented unless a geopolitical shock arises out of the blue or as the result of the “Bad Trump” policies.
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At the end of the day, however, we believe the imbalances – more debt, fiscal deficits, higher inflation, ballooning trade and current account deficits, border taxes and reduced trade, and a panicked Fed – will cause, in totality, President Trump’s economic policies to end in tears.
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President Obama, his economic team, and Ben Bernake and the Fed, get an A+ in our book for stabilizing a global economy on the brink of an economic disaster 10x the Great Depression when they took over. At best they get a C for the structural adjustment that was needed to create high paying jobs and prepare the U.S. for the new economy of the 21st century. Much of that failure was political constraints from the “do nothing” Congress.
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We see some rays of hope in the Trump policies but they fail in their central focus to prepare the workforce for the coming automation that will destroy up to 50 percent of all current jobs. Infrastructure spending, a one-time shot, will not, tax cuts will not, and deregulation will not — in fact, will accelerate automation. Trump’s policies are mostly cyclical in nature and won’t fix the economy’s structural problems.
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“Tech companies are creating plenty of jobs for robots.”
— Daniel Honan, The Robot Hiring Boom Has Arrived – Global Macro Monitor, 12/28/2011
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Teaching Python in the second grade would be a good start.
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Global Macro Monitor 