There’s Gold In Them “Boomer Rocks”

Gold is approaching its all-time high (ATH) at 2,070ish after a nice breakout from a year-long Cup & Handle formation.  The measured move upside target is around $2,350, but it must first break the ATH.  Freakishly, gold is trading close to its ATH even as the Fed is almost done.  What does this signal?     

My priors were the battle between gold and crypto was a generational thing.   The following quote confirms it,

“Yields are starting to look toward the Fed to pivot, and it looks like gold’s just ready to break out. I think these boomer rocks, they’re set up for a boom…”  – Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Macro Strategist

We are betting on gold as it has thousands of years of history. 

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Recession Cometh: In Friendships

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Masters Week: WWII German POWs At Augusta, WTF?

BFTP: Blast From The Past

This post is a favorite of GMM readers.

Go Rory!

Originally Posted on

Masters_Image

Answer to yesterday’s Masters quiz question:

Anthony Kim posted 11 birdies in the second round of the 2009 Masters.

German WWII POWs

Here’s some more 19th hole fodder to impress your buddies and something I bet you didn’t know about Augusta:

German POWs from nearby Camp Gordon built the bridge over Rae’s Creek next to the 13th tee box during WWII.  They were part of Rommel’s Panzer division in North Africa responsible for building bridges to enable tanks to cross rivers.

While Augusta National is famed for its almost unnaturally beautiful flora, as it turns out some rather interesting fauna once called the course home as well: 200 heads of cattle and more than 1,400 turkeys. From 1943 until late 1944, Augusta National was closed for play and transformed into a farm of sorts to help support the war effort. Some of the turkeys were given to club members during Christmas (meat rations were in effect) while the rest were sold to local residents to help fund the club. And the cows? Well, they acted as natural lawnmowers but also inflicted quite a bit of damage to Augusta National, devouring many of the course’s famed plants and shrubs.

To help repair cattle-related damage and revive Augusta National for its reopening, 42 German prisoners of war from nearby Camp Gordon were shuttled back and forth to work on the course.

Writes John Strege in “When War Played Through: Golf During World War II:”

“The POWs had been with the engineering crew serving Rommel, the Desert Fox, in North Africa, part of the Panzer division responsible for building bridges that enabled German tanks to cross rivers. It was a useful skill for the renovation work to be done at Augusta National. The Germans were asked to erect a bridge over Rae’s Creek adjacent to the tee box at the thirteenth hole.”

The Masters resumed at Augusta National — now free of German prisoners and barnyard animals — in 1946. And interestingly enough, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe during World War II, Dwight D. Eisenhower, later became a member of Augusta National. Two Augusta National landmarks bearing Eisenhower’s name still stand today: the Eisenhower Tree (a loblolly pine at the 17th hole that the former president and avid golfer repeatedly struck with golf balls and requested be cut down; photo above) and the Eisenhower Cabin (built in the 1950s according to Secret Service security guidelines by the club for the former president’s visits).

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Global PMIs: Who’s Expanding, Who’s Contracting

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) just dropped.  The chart below illustrates which countries’ manufacturing sectors are expanding and which are contracting.  The data are soft, derived from surveys, not hard numbers.  Reading through the PMI reports, a recurring theme was that of disinflation in both input costs and output prices. 

 

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Happy New Year’s Day, Poisson d’avril!

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Cheap Labor: Where Art Thou?

Source:  PolyMatter

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Q1/YTD Review In Charts

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – March 31

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Escaping The Chinese Debt Trap | DW

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Where Not To Have A National Bank Run

Stare, or should we say, “glare” at the following chart from the 2022 Swiss National Bank (SNB) Financial Stability Report, then you decide.   The chart is an update from an earlier post, which included an outdated version. 

The SNB also notes,

The Swiss banking sector is distinguished by its size, the dominance of a small number of banks and its international integration. At the end of 2021, total banking sector assets stood at roughly CHF 3,900 billion. This is equivalent to about 520% of Swiss GDP – a high ratio by international comparison (cf. chart 15). A look back over the last 25 years shows that this ratio climbed steadily to over 800% until the beginning of the global financial crisis of 2007/08. Then it fell sharply before rebounding a little recently (cf. chart 16). While both the pre-crisis rise and the post-crisis decline are exclusively attributable to foreign assets – especially those held by the two largest Swiss banks, Credit Suisse and UBS – the recent rebound has been driven by an increase in domestic assets. Against this backdrop, domestic employment in the Swiss banking sector has remained relatively stable. – SNB, Financial Stability Report

The data show that Europe is still ginormously overbanked and needs a further deepening of  its capital  markets.

Capital Ratios, Smack Those Ratios

Credit Swissie, where art thou?   Always question, dig deeper, and be skeptical and contrarian, folks.

Largely Contained

Here’s to hoping, and our priors are, though we have not been following the situation closely, that the deposit instability of the past few weeks and the banking “mess is largely contained.”   Wait, that sounds familiar.     

Stay frosty, folks.  

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