Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – March 17

Tough week, especially for European banks and equities.  

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Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Blast From The Past (BFTP).

For my late grandmother from Cork.

Originally Posted On 

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

St. Patrick, Ireland, St. Patrick’s Day. Simple, right? The man wasn’t even Irish! He was actually born in Britain around the turn of the 4th century. At 16 years old, Irish raiders captured him in the midst of an attack on his family’s estate. The raiders then took him to Ireland and held him captive for six years. After escaping, he went back to England for religious training and was sent back to Ireland many years later as a missionary. St. Patrick was actually born Maewyn Succat, according to legend; he changed his name to Patricius, or Patrick, which derives from the Latin term for “father figure,” when he became a priest.  – Time

The Irish Comeback

Ireland has come a long way since this post, which was just after the European debt crisis.  The government just placed €1.03 billion of 10-year bonds in mid-February at a stunning yield of 0.85 percent.  The auction had a bid-to-cover of 2.24.

Yeah, got it, distorted due to ECB asset-buying program.  But still well below the Euro periphery bond yields.

Irealand

Though the Irish economy is slowing and there is much uncertainty around Brexit, still it’s been one helluva comeback,  and the Irish are a resilient bunch, now positioning themselves with U.S. and Canadian companies as the “only English-speaking common-law country in the whole of the European Union.”

Me “finks [sic]” part of the success was thumbing their nose and ignoring the advice and dictates of the Eurocrats in Brussels.

Plus, Ireland still has Bono and U2, Andrea and the rest of the Corrs, and the many, if not all the great people of Ireland, we love so much,  including my late grandmother and her side of the family.   That is the upside of being an American.  We are all mutts and can claim to be citizens of many cultures.  Don’t think POUTS has got the memo quite yet.

Rory

How great would be to see an Irishman win the PGA’s coveted Players Championship on St. Paddy’s Day?   Rory tees it up in today’s final round one back.

Getting long Rory as I write.  Pour me one in Dublin and Hollywood, CD in the wee hours tomorrow to celebrate!   You heard it here first.  Unleash the Leprechauns!

Rory

Source:  Golf Digest

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Originally Posted on 

In case you’re wondering,  Maweyn Succat was St. Patrick’s real name and he wasn’t even Irish!.   Click here for some great background and history of St. Patrick’s Day.

Go Paddy, Rory, Graeme, and Darren!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!  Not too many green beers, folks!

By the way, there has been one huge bond rally in Ireland over the past year.

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The U.S. Budget Deficit Turning Up Again

After normalizing post-COVID, the U.S. budget deficit is starting to turn up again.  The 12-month trailing deficit was $1.62 trillion at the end of February, or around 6.14 percent of GDP.   Good luck bringing inflation down to 2 percent, given those digits and trend. Moreover, financing the gaps during normal times without the Fed and a flight-to-quality bid for Treasury securities will be a challenge for the markets and will put upward pressure on interest rates. 

The U.S. Deficit As the 15th Largest World Economy 

For context, the current U.S. budget deficit in nominal dollar terms is larger than the economies (gross domestic products) of 178 of the 192 countries in the IMF WEO database.  That is, the difference between what the  U.S. government spends and takes in is greater in dollar terms than 93 percent of the world’s economies, or about the size of the Australian economy and more than 3x Ireland’s GDP, folks.  Stunning.

Prepare to hear all about it as the debt ceiling debate heats up.  Tax hikes or spending cuts to reduce the hole is the political question…or just ignore it and wait for the mother of all crises to wash ashore. Most likely, the latter. 

After last September’s budget debacle in the U.K. and the resulting market turmoil,  which ultimately forced the prime minister’s resignation,  we now know deficits do matter.   

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Foreign Holdings Of U.S. Treasuries

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Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?

We are reposting an oldie but goldie piece, given the market jitters over Credit-Suisse.

We are baffled by the conventional wisdom that a bank run or crisis is deflationary.

Yes, in the early 1930s, when the Fed and other central banks failed to provide liquidity and perform their duty as the “lender of last resort” to banks experiencing bank runs.  Banks failed, closed their doors, savers lost everything, and the money supply, according to Milton Friedman, shrank around 25 percent.

Printing Press Redux

We know from recent experience the central banks will do whatever it takes to save the system.  And whatever it takes means firing up the printing press until the cows come home.

You smell deflation; I smell inflation and lots of it.

Moreover, look at the Bank Assets to Home Country GDP chart below, — albeit old and outdated — and note how overbanked the European financial system is, most notably in Switzerland.  If the past few days evolve into a full-blown banking crisis – a “big if” – the ECB and SNB will be forced to do a lot of  “whatever it takes.”

A banking crisis in vulnerable Europe is relatively and significantly more destabilizing than in the United States.   Markets sniff it and are spanking European equities.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is euro-equity.jpg

Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?

Originally Posted on  by macromon

Here’s in an interesting chart, originally posted over at Zero Hedge, that makes us wonder do we really want to be long the Swiss franc during a European banking crisis?   Note the chart may be a little dated, but we think you get the picture.  Click chart for bigger picture and better resolution.

(click here if chart is not observable)

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Silicon Valley Bank: What Really Went Wrong?

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QOTD: How Fragile?

QOTD = Quote of the Day

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – March 10

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Letting The Chips Fall In America

Industrial policy is all the rage these daze.

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Disgusting Chart(s) Of The Day

There will be retribution.  Bank it.

If he were thrown into the sea with a huge rock tied to his neck, he would be far better off than facing the punishment in store for those who harm these little children’s souls. I am warning you! – Gospel of Luke

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