Flash Eurozone PMI Lowest Since July 2009

Posted on October 24, 2011 by macromon

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Posted in Economics, Euro | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

China’s Rail Expansion Faces Funding Squeeze

Posted on October 24, 2011 by macromon

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Posted in China | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

60 Minutes: Steve Jobs

Posted on October 24, 2011 by macromon

In case you missed it.    Click here for full 60 Minutes report.

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Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund May Help Eurozone

Posted on October 24, 2011 by macromon

This may the rabbit the Euros pull out of the hat.  Sovereign wealth funds to compliment EFSF.  Our sense Lagarde is working on something.

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Posted in Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

World’s Highest and Lowest Growth Economies

Posted on October 24, 2011 by macromon

Here is the list we promised of the high/low growth economies ranked by 2011 GDP estimates.    As we posted last night,  the table illustrates that, of the large non-oil exporting economies, Argentina is the second fastest growing economy in the world.  Not that it is a balanced non-inflationary sustainable trajectory, but the country’s default and currency devaluation, coupled with the huge positive terms of trade shock has contributed to the strong growth.    Argentina is still battling with its creditors almost a decade after defaulting.

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Posted in Economics, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Markit Flash German PMI Shows Modest Rise

Posted on October 24, 2011 by macromon

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Markit Flash France PMI Contracts Sharply

Posted on October 24, 2011 by macromon

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HSBC’s China PMI Turns Up

Posted on October 23, 2011 by macromon

This is going to catch many leaning the wrong way.  The Australian writes,

THE preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, rebounded strongly in October, rising to 51.1 from a final reading of 49.9 in September, HSBC said today.

The rise in the HSBC PMI, the first since March, could assuage some concerns over a sharp slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

“All data confirms our view that there is no risk of a hard landing in China,” HSBC chief economist for China Hongbin Qu said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing output sub-index rose to 51.7 in October, a six-month high, compared with 50.3 in September.

Asian equities are up big and copper is up almost 5 percent overnight.

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Most Important Spread in the World

Posted on October 23, 2011 by macromon

Given the bank recapitalization plan announced over the weekend,  the France national government may be on the hook to help recapitalize and backstop its banking system.  The markets will be full of noise in the next few days and we will be watching the France-German 10-year bond yield very carefully.

This spread, we believe, will be the ultimate voting machine on the final Euro deal to be cut on Wednesday.  It recently blew through 100 bps and nothing  else matters, in our opinion. Equities feel like they want to run here and are probably not the best indicator of confidence in the Euro plan.  Ultimately, this whole exercise is about restoring confidence.   The France-German spread should let us know if it has.

It’s going to be an interesting week.   Stay tuned.

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Posted in Credit, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Don’t Cry for Argentina’s Crisitina

Posted on October 23, 2011 by macromon

Listen to the report carefully.  Did they say President Cristina Fernandez is benefiting from the world’s fastest growing economy?  They almost nail it.  Argentina is expected to grow around 8 percent in 2011 according to the IMF after last year’s 9.2 percent growth rate.  The is about 1 percent lower than China’s  growth.   We’ll post a table of the world’s fastest and slowest growing economies tomorrow.

People in our profession have have strong opinions and long memories with respect to Argentina.  Here’s ours:  good  people,  beautiful women,  excellent  food,  great wine, very cosmo culture,  soccer powerhouse and much more;  and, generally, a great place to hang out.   Argentinos really know how to live and we love ’em!   We’ll leave the economics and politics for a later discussion.

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Posted in Geopolitical, Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment