Tag Archives: Hard Landing

About that other 800 pound Macro Swan in the room…

Posted on May 24, 2012 by

Good stuff from the Economist’s cover story and 14-page special report on China’s economy.  Run, don’t walk, to read it.  Here’s a taste, CHINA’S weight in the global economy means that it commands the world’s attention. When its industrial production, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Watch Dr. Copper

Posted on March 25, 2012 by

Copper is at a key level and its direction may indicate where global equity and risk markets are headed in the next few weeks.  A break through short-term support may signal deeper problems in China’s economy. We’re pretty bearish short-term … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Economics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

China’s Depressed Animal Spirits

Posted on March 19, 2012 by

Here’s a report from Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride in Hong Kong.   We’re trying to diversify our China media sources in response to suggestions from our readers in Asia.   The caption to the video reads, China’s strong consumer base has kept … Continue reading →

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Protests as Shanghai Property Values Plunge

Posted on October 26, 2011 by

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in China, Real Estate | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Third Macro Panda Huffs and Puffs…

Posted on September 29, 2011 by

Over the weekend we posted a piece on the three McBears weighing on global markets.  As all eyes continue to focus on Europe the third macro bear — China — is beginning to growl a little louder.   Greece is no … Continue reading →

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What’s Keeping Risk Managers Up at Night

Posted on August 1, 2011 by

The latest Bubble Risk Bulletin from the Society of Actuaries is well worth your time.  It focuses on China’s inflation rate and the risk of a hard landing. As risk managers, actuaries consider China’s inflation a serious emerging risk. Underscoring … Continue reading →

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Chanos: “Not bearish enough on China”

Posted on May 25, 2011 by

Wonder what the Goldie commodity traders think when they listen to Jim Chanos?  Or do they?  Think or listen? (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Video | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment