Monthly Archives: October 2011

Ray Dalio on Charlie Rose

Posted on October 23, 2011 by macromon

A must see interview for anyone interested in global macro with Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund.   His key points: There are three big themes driving the global economy: 1)  deleveraging; 2)  monetary and fiscal policymakers … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Video, Whales | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Is the Euro Driving the S&P500?

Posted on October 22, 2011 by macromon

In case you haven’t noticed recently the Euro and S&P500 seem to be moving together almost tick for tick.   Here are the daily moves in futures over the past month.  Makes you think they’re both dancing to the same … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Equities, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Losses expected for holders of Greek debt

Posted on October 22, 2011 by macromon

Do they mean banks need to write down or reserve against their Greek bonds by 60 percent or is it that bondholders will reduce their claims on Greece by 60 percent?   We are not confident that the EU policymakers … Continue reading →

Posted in Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Global Trend Indicators

Posted on October 22, 2011 by macromon

(click here if tables are not observable)

Posted in Global Trend Indicators | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Models. Behaving. Badly.

Posted on October 21, 2011 by macromon

Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life Emanuel Derman  is a South African-born academic,[1] businessman and writer. He is best known as a quantitative analyst, and author of the book My Life … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, General Interest | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Night Sweats of a Money Manager

Posted on October 21, 2011 by macromon

With about 40 minutes of trading, the S&P500 has pierced its 1230-33 resistance (which includes the 100-day moving average)  though has come in a little from its morning high.   Closing above the 100-day at 1232 will be an important win … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Europe’s Undercapitalized Banks

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

We’ve posted several pieces recently about Europe’s over banked and undercapitalized financial system.   The markets have pounded European bank equities this year and forced the eurozone political leaders to cobble together a bank recapitalization plan, which we all wait for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Euro, General Interest, Geopolitical, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Margin Call in Theatres Tomorrow

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

And maybe to a market near you if Merkozy can’t get it together……… (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in General Interest, Video | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Industrial Commodities Swan Diving

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at  copper,  lumber, and rubber.   Down big.   What does it mean?   No doubt a reflection of a slowing global economy and confirms the contracting manufacturing PMIs in many of the emerging economies.   Hard landing in China?   Don’t … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Rivets Starting to Pop in Greece

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

The FT reports, Greece should get its next €8bn in international aid, but its economic outlook is deteriorating so rapidly that a second bail-out plan agreed just three months ago is no longer adequate to keep Athens afloat, international lenders … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS | Tagged , | Leave a comment