Monthly Archives: February 2012

Weekly Eurozone Watch

Posted on February 24, 2012 by macromon

Q:  How does the market respond to all the doubts and scepticism about the second Greece bailout?   A:  They tighten Italian and Spanish spreads and take the Euro higher, although Portugal did widen on the week. We’ve learned a very important … Continue reading →

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Nonlinear Thinking: Test Tube Big Macs

Posted on February 24, 2012 by macromon

Stunning!  We are truly on the elbow of an exponential curve of technological innovation.   Think of what this does to agriculture and society if it is scalable. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Nonlinear Thinking | Tagged , | 1 Comment

The Great Repression: Freedom of Speech in the Bond Market

Posted on February 23, 2012 by macromon

We’re baffled anybody still looks to the U.S. bond market for signals of future economic activity, inflation, or even risk aversion.  Case in point is today’s 7-year bond auction, which CNBC’s Rick Santelli rated an eleven on a scale of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

IMF Still Sees Risk in Greece

Posted on February 23, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Don’t Blame the Gas Station for Price Spike

Posted on February 23, 2012 by macromon

Here’ a cool graphic from the EIA on what drives the price of a gallon of gasoline in January 2012.  We paid $4.20 last night in California! Note 76 percent of the price for a gallon of gas is driven … Continue reading →

Posted in Crude Oil, Energy | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Greek bond swap brings new downgrades

Posted on February 22, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Eurozone PMI contracts in February

Posted on February 22, 2012 by macromon

From Markit’s release earlier today, The Markit Eurozone PMI® Composite Output Index fell from 50.4 in January to 49.7 in February, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. The latest figure signalled a … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Euro | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Current Housing Bust Much Worse Than Great Depression

Posted on February 22, 2012 by macromon

Great chart from the recently released Economic Report of the President.  We suspect the Great Depression housing bust didn’t have the government props to soften the blow as we do today,  which,  therefore, on a relative basis,  makes the current … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Housing | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

China Flash PMI At 4-month High

Posted on February 21, 2012 by macromon

From today’s Markit release, Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “Growth remains on track of slowdown, despite the marginal improvement in the headline flash … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Economics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Euro Fracture: Greeks Urged to Boycott German Products

Posted on February 21, 2012 by macromon

Keep this on your radar.   Ugly politics heighten deal risk. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment