Kondratiev Wave: End to 30-year bond market rally

Interesting stuff from this morning’s CNBC European Squawk,

The updated reading of the work of 1920s Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev shows that interest rates have reached the bottom of a 60-year-long wave, and are bound to go up, Chris Watling CEO of Longview Economics, told CNBC.

(click here if video is not observable)

Vodpod videos no longer available.

This entry was posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Equities and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Kondratiev Wave: End to 30-year bond market rally

  1. Anonymous says:

    Just remember what happened to Kondratiev.
    Kondratiev was a Russian economist, but his economic conclusions were disliked by the Soviet leadership and upon their release he was quickly dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in the Soviet Union in 1928. His conclusions were seen as a criticism of Joseph Stalin’s intentions for the Soviet economy: as a result he was sentenced to the Soviet Gulag and later received the death penalty in 1938.

  2. macromon says:

    Good point. The U.S. can’t afford higher rates and may trigger a sovereign debt and monetary crisis. This, coupled with Adm.Mike Mullen’s statement that Debt is the biggest threat to U.S. national security, would make a bond bear a national security threat, no?


  3. DDP says:

    Back on Aug 27, 2010 Tom McClellan posted a chart of high grade corp. bond yields going back to 1768 that clearly shows a 60 year cycle in interest rates. If is wasn’t for the FED, interest rates would have started going up in the summer of 2010. But even the FED can not manipulate rates forever. The pressure of the rising cycle will win out in the long run. The link below will take you to one of the best long term interest rates charts available anywhere in the world.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.