Sniffing The Romney Rally?

It’s very difficult for us to explain, on the fundamental basis,  why the market has been so bid over the past few days after Monday’s ugly reversal.

Could this be it?

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided…

New numbers from the swing state of Iowa show a toss-up with Romney picking up 47% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. In that state, Romney has a 10-point advantage on the question of who is trusted more to deal with the economy.

The race is also a toss-up in Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado. Romney leads in North Carolina and Missouri. Obama leads in Pennsylvania. New numbers from Wisconsin will be released at noon Eastern today.

Four years ago, after wrapping up the Democratic nomination, Obama led John McCain every single day during the month of June. His average lead was five percentage points.  Obama eventually won by seven points. In the first 13 days of June for Election 2012, Romney has held the lead 10 times, the candidates have been tied twice, and Obama has been on top once. See tracking history.

The tracking data is almost as volatile as stock prices and Intrade still has the President’s chances of winning in November at 52.7 percent,  but down almost 10 points in the last month.

Not a political statement, just as an observation and an opinion that risk markets rally on a Romney victory.

Stay tuned!

(click here if chart is not observable)

This entry was posted in Equities, Politics and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Sniffing The Romney Rally?

  1. Byron says:

    Given Romney’s policy will lead to austerity, I fail to see why the market would rally.

  2. macromon says:

    Byron, Good point, but our perception is the markets think Romney can “fix” the economy better than the President and has more of a chance of getting a long-term budget plan in place that will include some supply side stimulus. Hey, but want do we know?

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