We think the probability is much higher than markets have priced.

Susan Collins and Rand Paul  are now waffling on their tax reform vote.   Lots of flaws in the bill need to be fixed as haste makes waste.

Hard to predict how many other Republicans begin to distance themselves from the president and his “let them eat cake”  tax reform policy as the crimson tide blowback rises around the White House.

The big question is a crimson tide coming to the markets?

Not sure, but given the extreme valuations and sentiment,  coupled with the global interest rate hikes that are coming next year,  would not bet against it.

Sweet home Alabama
Where the skies are so blue
Sweet home Alabama
Lord, I’m coming home to you