Market Digits You Need To Know…

Running out to passport office and we will be out a few days.  Here are the market data you need to know:

Recovery faltering...

Mar19_recovery

S&P held 100-day moving average and closed above 50% key fibo today.  Put down today’s low and the 100-day as your key marker…

 

Mar19_bears

Like clockwork,  the S&P500 rolls over just as the analog instructs it should.  Trump S&P now trails JFK S&P by 73 bps, 341 trading days after election day…

S&P500 Analog

Our JFK-Trump S&P500 continues to track.  We have had some big push back on this analysis, such as:   useless analysis; meaningless correlation;  throw two charts on top of one another, you will always get a good analog.

Let us now push back.   We didn’t invent the analog.  We discovered it through comparing the recent volatility shock to past data.  We found only three comparable periods:  1) 1955:  Eisenhower heart attack, which did not lead to bear market;  2) 1962:  the “Kennedy Slide” or bear market, and 3) 1987:  the October stock market crash.

What caught our eye was the similar big advance in the S&P500 after the JFK and Trump election, which were very close in percentage terms.   They both peaked at a relatively close number of trading days after the election, and the subsequent correction and attempt to get back to new highs have exhibited similar  price patterns.  Of course, the analog does not have daily correlation of 1,  but they do tend to move closely (within a week or two) together on a directional basis, however. 

Speculative price action is timeless and should always be studied by any serious market historians, watchers, and analysts.   – GMM, March 18

 

LivermoreSpecQuote_Mar18

 

Mar19_analog

 

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1 Response to Market Digits You Need To Know…

  1. Pingback: From Global Macro Monitor – BlindSquirrel

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