Yearly Archives: 2018

Global Risk Monitor – October 5

Posted on October 6, 2018 by macromon
Posted in Daily Risk Monitor, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Politics Of The Employment Report

Posted on October 5, 2018 by macromon

Today’s nonfarm payrolls miss,  134k total jobs created in September, sealed the deal on the job creation political debate before the November midterms.   That is all things being equal — during President Trump’s first 20 employment reports versus President Obama’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Employment, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Alea Iacta Est!

Posted on October 3, 2018 by macromon

As Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River with the 13th legion into Italy to march on Rome, he turned to one of his deputies, quite possibly, Marc Antony, and made the famous remark, “alea iacta est.”  Historians translate this as “the die … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, German Bund, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 19 Comments

The New FX Model: PMI Differentials?

Posted on October 2, 2018 by macromon

One of Australia’s finest, and best market analyst, Greg McKenna, and more important, our good friend, posits a new exchange rate determination model:  PMI differentials. We cut our teeth as a young economist on Anne Krueger‘s book,  Exchange Rate Determination. … Continue reading →

Posted in Capital Flows, Exchange Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 4 Comments

The Menu Of Quant Trading And Investing Strategies

Posted on October 2, 2018 by macromon

Excellent synopsis from Bloomberg’s,  Your Guide to the Many Flavors of Quant Investing, of the various quant trading and investment strategies. Factor investing You like Indian food and Thai food, so maybe you like all spicy foods. HOW IT’S DONE: … Continue reading →

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Crude Reality For Emerging Markets

Posted on October 2, 2018 by macromon

This chart comes to us via the “Polish Swish,” known for his nuttin’ but net baseline jumper.  It illustrates the local pain of rising oil prices in a few selected emerging markets. Crude oil is priced in dollars, and countries … Continue reading →

Posted in Crude Oil, Currency, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Kiril Sokoloff Interviews Stan Druckenmiller

Posted on October 1, 2018 by macromon

Investment visionary Kiril Sokoloff is embarking on a series of exceptional interviews from his personal contacts for Real Vision. In the second episode of his series, he sits down with a revered titan of the investment world: Stanley F. Druckenmiller. … Continue reading →

Posted in Video, Whales | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Get Shorty, Got Shorty, Still Shorty In 10-Year Notes

Posted on October 1, 2018 by macromon

Interesting chart from Bloomberg on the growing record short position by specs in 10-year note futures.  Surprisingly,  there has been no meaningful squeeze in the 10-year during 2018, even with the massive equity volatility shock in early February. In fact,  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged | 6 Comments

NAFTA Gets The Shafta

Posted on October 1, 2018 by macromon

Scratch NAFTA and welcome in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The Best Deal In History Once again, sure to be spun as the “greatest trade deal in the history of the world,”  by both sides, for that matter,  but will not … Continue reading →

Posted in Trade War, Uncategorized | 4 Comments

German 10-year At 47 bps As Inflation Prints 2.3 Percent

Posted on September 30, 2018 by macromon

Really efficient markets, no?   The Germans  ECB loves a real 10-year negative carry. This is absurd and tantamount to confiscating the savings of hard working Germans.  Only going to add to the country’s already rising political tensions. As Holger notes, … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Germany, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 5 Comments