Monthly Archives: August 2019

The Short-Term Heavy Treasury Curve

Before reading further we suggest you look at our latest post, The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion, for some context.   Gravitational Pull Toward Curve Flattening And Inversions Note the structure of the Treasury curve in terms of the amount of … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged | 3 Comments

The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion

We should be on vacation but it never fails that volatility spikes as soon as we leave our desk.   It must be the Ides Of August. Wait, it is.  Et tu Brutal! Nevertheless, we can’t help ourselves and have to … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

More Monetary Insanity & The Negative Yielding Bond Bubble

Had to get this last one in before we hit the surf. We like to look at the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI calculation as it removes monthly outliers that can pull the averages up or down.  It hit a 10-year … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

It’s That Time…

Time for the summer holiday, folks. Happy hunting. See you in September.  

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Deep Fakes Seem So Real…

Stunning. Imagine how these will be weaponized in the 2020 presidential campaign. I watched this video last night and it's still freaking me out. A deep fake where Bill Hader *turns into* Tom Cruise and Seth Rogan *while impersonating them*. … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Global Consequences Of A Narcistic And Incompetent POTUS

The world is starting to move sideways. The market talking heads are so clueless. It’s almost laughable listening to them trying to explain away in isolation how the pieces of the puzzle are starting to converge that will or already … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Geopolitical, Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Bring It, Richie…

It’s dark out, but gotta believe Richie

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Negative Yields Versus Negative Coupon Rates

There is a big difference between a bond with a negative yield to maturity than a bond with a negative coupon rate.   Many in the market conflate the two. We are searching for bonds that pay a negative coupon rate.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 13 Comments

“Rent Control” Problems Emerging In Bond Auctions

  Hat Tip: Gregory Mannarino  @GregMannarino The bid-to-cover ratio, indicative of the number of investors who put in offers to buy the debt and a gauge of demand, stood at 2.19. That is down from the 2.4 recorded in the last sale … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged | 4 Comments

The Good Ol’ Daze…

I loved this commercial when everyone was a stock market genius back in the late 1990’s, that time was different, and eyeballs trumped earnings. Let's Light This Candle #1999 — Rudy Havenstein, Smiling Politely (@RudyHavenstein) June 23, 2015  

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment