After negotiations in Brussels failed to produce a breakthrough, the odds at PredictIt of an official Brexit by November 1 tanked into the teens on big volume. The market was only pricing around a 30 percent probability of a deal by October 31, however.
Here’s some commentary by the FT,
Boris Johnson’s hopes of sealing a Brexit deal in time for a critical EU summit later this week were in jeopardy on Sunday evening after two days of intensive negotiations left Brussels baffled about the UK’s new customs proposals.
Michel Barnier, EU chief Brexit negotiator, told diplomats on Sunday evening that British plans to keep Northern Ireland in the UK’s customs territory while avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland were fiendishly complex and not yet properly worked out.
There was “no breakthrough yet”, said one EU diplomat, while noting it was positive that talks would continue in Brussels on Monday. “If the British government wants a solution, it must move quickly now. The clock is ticking.” – FT