The PredictIt market on a Brexit by November 1st is up over 50 percent in the past 24 hours.
Prior to 12:00:01 a.m. November 1, 2019 London time, the United Kingdom shall exit the European Union. – PredictIt
Driven by a tape with the following headlines, this one from the WSJ.
Still, the market is only pricing around a 30 percent probability of an October 31 Brexit, which may be due to the potential for a temporary extension of the deadline to conclude negotiations. We don’t know.
Nevertheless, if you’re confident BoJo can come to an agreement with the EU and Parliament will pass it, place your bets at PredictIt.
As of the recent price of 31 cents, the two-week return is 225.8 percent if Brexit gets done. It’s a binary trade if you hold it to maturity (Oct 31) and the loss is 100% if Brexit fails.
We like the fact you can trade in an out of these contracts as the probability of an agreement increases or decreases though they are not that liquid.
If you’re looking to do sizeola, as in >$50k, forget about it. These are lunch money bets, folks.
If you’re speculating in other markets based on a Brexit event, keep an eye on this one. Cable is also up almost 2 percent on the day.
To be honest, we never thought Brexit would happen and the UK would hold a second referendum where British voters choose to remain in the EU. We are not wrong yet as the market odds are still over 3:1 that Brexit gets done on schedule.