Yearly Archives: 2020

Biden Bounce Tomorrow?

Posted on March 3, 2020 by macromon

Stunning moves in the prediction market on who will be at the top of the Ticket in November.  Joe Biden, who was running behind Bernie at the time of our post last night has rocketed ahead to a 70 percent … Continue reading →

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The Fed Cut Fails To Inspire As Markets Deliver A Policy Margin Call

Posted on March 3, 2020 by macromon

The price action in stocks continues its remarkable volatility. The cash S&P500 traded in a 160 point range just today, or 5.4 percent.   They sold the Fed 50 bps emergency cut hard to close the S&P at 3003.37, down 2.8 … Continue reading →

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Sixpence Lower

Posted on March 3, 2020 by macromon

We noted how V.P. Mike Pence, the Administration’s coronavirus czar, is tanking in the prediction markets that he will remain on the Republican ticket in November.  Sixpence lower today and down over 17 percent since he was appointed to be, … Continue reading →

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Biden Rocks, Bernie Flops In Prediction Markets

Posted on March 2, 2020 by macromon

Joe making a big move on PredictIt to head the Democratic Ticket in November.   Super Tuesday on deck. Pence, The Fall Guy? This really caught our eye.   The probability or price that Mike Pence will be on the Republican ticket … Continue reading →

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Why Smart Money Use Bonds As A Stock Short Proxy

Posted on March 2, 2020 by macromon

Today is a classic example of why smart money buy bonds as a proxy for shorting stocks.  Bear market bounces, such as today’s, are much too violent and can, including for many today, be fatal. Here is a post about … Continue reading →

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China’s Manufacturing PMI Falls To 35.7 From 50.0, Services To 29.6

Posted on February 29, 2020 by macromon

Those are some ugly numbers, folks, and as a matter of fact, the lowest on record.  Not totally unexpected but much worse than anticipated.  The February print came in much lower than the median forecast of 43 by economists surveyed … Continue reading →

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Coronavirus, You’re On Your Own

Posted on February 29, 2020 by macromon

Say what you will about Chris but he has nailed the coronavirus from the beginning.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Are We Cheap Yet?

Posted on February 28, 2020 by macromon

One helluva weak week for the stock market.  Three of the five largest Dow point flops in history.  Yes, we have already been lectured like a little schoolboy by the Twitterati geniuses “it is the percentage drops that count.”  No … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 17 Comments

Triple Yikes!

Posted on February 27, 2020 by macromon

Especially 50 seconds in. Guggenheim's Scott Minerd says the coronavirus crisis is possibly the worst thing he's ever seen in his career: "This has the potential to reel into something extremely serious" pic.twitter.com/xLhhNm3u7t — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) February 27, 2020

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Efficient Markets

Posted on February 27, 2020 by macromon

The coronavirus is hurting the Corona beer brand — and its maker's share price https://t.co/SRW4bNt5Ni — Bloomberg (@business) February 27, 2020

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