Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Saudi stocks flop, gold rocks as US weighs action in Libya

Posted on March 1, 2011 by macromon

Debka reports the U.S. naval and air fleet is repositioning around Libya for potential “hit-and-run” raids to cripple Qadaffi’s air capability.  This isn’t new news, but we’re wondering out loud if the Saudis have been consulted and are on board. … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Crude Oil, Geopolitical, Global Stock Performance, Gold, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Weber’s Exit Highlights Merkel’s Euro Problem – Der Spiegel

Posted on February 15, 2011 by macromon

A must read from Der Spiegel of the inside account of Axel Weber’s resignation. Bundesbank head Axel Weber’s resignation has made one thing clear: The debate about the future of the euro has become intense — and bitter. Indeed, Chancellor … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Middle East Social Indicators

Posted on February 3, 2011 by macromon

The BBC has a pretty good piece looking at Middle East countries where the unrest in Egypt could potentially spread.  We’ll let you link to the story, but we  found some data from article interesting and after tweaking and adding … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Egypt, Geopolitical, Politics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Egypt: Revolt or Revolution? – Fareed Zakaria

Posted on January 30, 2011 by macromon

Here is Fareed’s take on Egypt.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Egypt, Geopolitical, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

A Major Factor Driving Political Instability

Posted on January 28, 2011 by macromon

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;  Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world – W.B.  Yeats Here’s a report from India’s NDTV on the “hyperinflation” in food prices in some countries, which already is and could further destabilize regimes … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Economics, Food Prices, Video | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Quote of the Day: Euro Debt Crisis

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

“Europe is testing the limits of reactive incremental strategy … The laws of economics, like the laws of physics, do not respect political constraints.”  – Larry Summers at the World Economic Forum

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Quote of the Day, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Japan: Risk of Sovereign Interest Rate Shock – IMF

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

In the context of S&P’s recent sovereign downgrade of Japan we thought you’d be interested in this IMF piece published in October.  The basic thesis is that Japanese commercial banks have been the main buyers of JGBs over past few … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Chart of the Day, Economics, Japan, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Next Shock: Are We Better Prepared?

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

Here’s an interesting video from Davos.  Fareed Zakaria moderates a panel discussion on the next potential macro shock.  The panel includes JP Morgan’s CEO,  Jamie Dimon.  Go to 15 min 55 seconds into video and listen to Dimon’s brilliant response … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics, Geopolitical, Video | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Monetarism Redefined: Crude, Fine Wine & Gold

Posted on January 20, 2011 by macromon

“Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon” – Milton Freidman Monetarism as a theory, which states that the variation in the money supply has major influences on national output in the short run and the price level over longer … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Charts, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency, Economics, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Shanghai Breaks 200-day, Commodites Next to Roll?

Posted on January 17, 2011 by macromon

During the 1990’s when the emerging markets were still emerging a friend of ours wrote a research report on pre-restructured busted Russian debt titled, No Rush to Buy, No Russians Buying.  The point was the Russians knew the prospects for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, China, Commodities, Crude Oil, Currency, Economics, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments