Category Archives: Bonds

Holders of U.S. Treasury Debt

Posted on August 7, 2011 by macromon

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Bonds, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

Europe’s Destabilizing Feedback Loop

Posted on August 4, 2011 by macromon

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and concerns over a global double dip sparked a dash for cash and hammered just about everything, including crude oil, corn, emerging equities, developed equities, and even orange juice.  O.J.?  Down 4 percent today? Did the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 5

Posted on July 30, 2011 by macromon

Only one of the Four Horsemen of the our Armageddon Trade is misbehaving, that is, not confirming by moving in the wrong direction.  Stocks, which, some have touted as the new safe haven, have been hit the most and dollar … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 4

Posted on July 28, 2011 by macromon

Looks like the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse spent the day watering their horses.  Not much happening in our Armageddon Trade today.  Gold, which is trading poorly,  bounced off the lows and stocks reversed a decent rally to close lower.   … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 3

Posted on July 27, 2011 by macromon

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were split on the Armageddon Trade today.  Gold and the dollar diverged and were non-confirming, though stocks got hammered and took out some short-term technicals.  Bonds rallied off lows to close essentially flat.    … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Charts, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: T-Bill Yields

Posted on July 27, 2011 by macromon

Somebody’s selling.  That is a big move in a big market.   The “freight from safety” trade on fears of credit downgrade may just be enough to light a fire under the arse of the politicos.  We had a huge capital … Continue reading →

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Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 2

Posted on July 26, 2011 by macromon

Still no panic, but lower.  The dollar took the biggest beating and looks ready to take out its May lows.  Only T-Bonds of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse moved contrary to what we call the Armageddon trade, where gold … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade

Posted on July 25, 2011 by macromon

The following charts illustrate today’s performance of “The Four Horsemen” of our Armageddon trade, which we posted earlier.  That is, the markets were monitoring for large concurrent moves which would signal a loss of confidence in the U.S. government and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Charts, Dollar, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

The Armageddon Trade

Posted on July 24, 2011 by macromon

Here are the four markets we do not want to see large concurrent sustained moves in the direction as illustrated. (click here if picture is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

The Clash of Generations

Posted on July 18, 2011 by macromon

Thomas Friedman is “connecting the dots” in his New York Times column piece over the weekend, The Clash of Generations.    The Global Macro Monitor posted a similar piece, Connecting the Dots: The Coming War Between Generations,  back in March. During … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Demographics, Egypt, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical | Tagged , , | 8 Comments