Category Archives: Credit

Argentina – “Cookie Cutter” for the European Periphery?

Posted on December 13, 2010 by macromon

“I would not say that Mexico is going to be a cookie cutter for others.” – William Rhodes, Citibank 1989 These were the words of the chairman of Mexico’s Bank Advisory Committee in 1989, just after the country and its … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

December 7th – A Rate Move Which Will Live In Infamy

Posted on December 7, 2010 by macromon

CNBC puts an interesting spin on the stock market sell-off and reversal in almost all commodities today, blaming the SEC insider trading probe.  We have a different view, believing it was the historic rise in long-term rates. Today’s 23 bps … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Chart of the Day: ECB Bond Purchases

Posted on December 6, 2010 by macromon

They’ve only just begun…

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Credit, Currency, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: Banks to Sovereigns to Banks

Posted on November 27, 2010 by macromon

Great chart from IMF showing feedback loop of Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis.  A little busy, but stick with it.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

10-year Treasury Bond Rate At Key Resistance

Posted on November 15, 2010 by macromon

We’ve posted several pieces on the Treasury market about the bond’s positive technicals versus poor fundamentals.   The 10-year rate is now close to  piercing through key resistance at 2.83 percent.   It is difficult to fundamentally determine why rates are moving … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Greenspan: High US Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis

Posted on November 14, 2010 by macromon

We are becoming more concerned that 2011 may be shaping up to be the year of the public debt crisis.  Greenspan seems to share those concerns.  The Hill writes, “Look, I think something equivalent to what Erskine Bowles and Alan … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

All Eyes on Portugal and U.S. Bond Auctions

Posted on November 9, 2010 by macromon

After a yield spike of 40 basis points since the launch of QE2 (see chart below), the U.S. is due to sell $16 BN in 30-year bonds tomorrow.  This is interesting in itself, but after a week of increased bond … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Credit, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: Sovereign Debt and Capital Flight

Posted on November 8, 2010 by macromon

We thought this to be a very informative chart, which shows the percentage of a country’s sovereign debt held by domestic and foreign residents.   In general, the more a country’s debt is held by foreigners the higher the risk of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Fiscal Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

‘Firewall needed’ to prevent cash surge – China Daily

Posted on November 4, 2010 by macromon

We have written in numerous posts about John Bull’s “Tsunami of Dollars” flooding into the emerging markets.   China Daily writes, China should “set up a firewall” as uncontrolled dollar printing in the United States will drive more liquidity into … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

US Budget Deficit 9th Largest Economy in the World

Posted on October 26, 2010 by macromon

After falling to a low of 2.33 percent on October 8th, the 10-day Treasury has sold-off closing today at a yield of 2.64 percent.  The recent high is around 2.83 percent, which we will be watching closely. To get a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Geopolitical, Gold, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment