Category Archives: Fiscal Policy

Where is Gold Headed?

Posted on November 30, 2010 by macromon

In 1996, we visited the Bulgarian central bank at a time when the country was experiencing economic turmoil and a loss of confidence that the government could rollover its maturing debt.  After a long discussion on the domestic economy and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Run on German Safe Deposit Boxes? WTH?

Posted on November 26, 2010 by macromon

The implosion of the Eurozone appears to be accelerating. But Germany?  Come on!  Yet Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes the crisis in the eurozone periphery is moving to the core as credit default swaps for German, French,and Dutch bonds have blown out … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

“Will the next fiscal crisis start in Washington?”

Posted on November 26, 2010 by macromon

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., writes in today’s Washington Post, Even as work continues to repair our financial infrastructure and get the economy moving again, we need urgent action to forestall the next financial crisis. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Haircuts for Senior Bondholders in Irish Bank Package?

Posted on November 26, 2010 by macromon

This Irish Times is reporting the that EU-IMF are “examining” burden sharing for senior bondholders.   Several proposals are being discussed, but the major focus is on two ideas: 1) bank debt-for-equity conversions; and 2) option of providing fresh capital injections … Continue reading →

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Chart of the Day

Posted on November 26, 2010 by macromon
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Japan, Sovereign Risk | Leave a comment

Is Ireland’s Rescue Package a Veiled Bailout of the ECB?

Posted on November 23, 2010 by macromon

Not that it needs a one, but some in Ireland are starting to ask the question.   The European Central Bank exposure in Ireland is above €130 BN, a quarter of its book, and now wants its money back.  In the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Washington Gets Serious on Deficit Reduction

Posted on November 22, 2010 by macromon

There is a whiff in Washington that the pols may be getting religion on the deficit.  The implosion of Europe must be scaring the s%*t out of them.  The WaPost writes, A debate is raging over the size and shape … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

10-year Treasury Bond Rate At Key Resistance

Posted on November 15, 2010 by macromon

We’ve posted several pieces on the Treasury market about the bond’s positive technicals versus poor fundamentals.   The 10-year rate is now close to  piercing through key resistance at 2.83 percent.   It is difficult to fundamentally determine why rates are moving … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Greenspan: High US Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis

Posted on November 14, 2010 by macromon

We are becoming more concerned that 2011 may be shaping up to be the year of the public debt crisis.  Greenspan seems to share those concerns.  The Hill writes, “Look, I think something equivalent to what Erskine Bowles and Alan … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Quote of the Day

Posted on November 10, 2010 by macromon

“Global imbalances lie at the heart of the current recession; failure to address them will abort recovery and lead to currency wars. Gold can play a minor part in the necessary rebalancing, as Mr Zoellick suggests – although history shows … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, China, Commodities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment