Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation

Gold In Full Blown QE Mode

Posted on June 6, 2012 by macromon

Gold is a weird cat with multiple personalities and more than nine lives.  The yellow metal is up almost $100 since last Friday’s weak U.S. employment report. At any given time period  gold will assume any one of its multiple … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Inflation Convergence and Real Earnings

Posted on April 16, 2012 by macromon

The BLS chart clearly illustrates the convergence of core (x/ food and energy) inflation and all items.   Core inflation is up 2.3 percent y/y, which is a little hot given its recent history.  Here’s the BLS commentary, The index … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Employment, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

What’s Driving U.S. Inflation?

Posted on March 19, 2012 by macromon

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment.  These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase. (click here is charts and table are not observable)

Posted in Economics, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Chart Trioka

Posted on March 1, 2012 by macromon

We’re keeping these three charts on our radar over the next year. With a heavily spiked punch bowl,  we suspect U.S. monetary policymakers will be a little nervous if they start to see bank credit accelerate and a rapid expansion … Continue reading →

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What’s Inflating in the U.S. Consumer Basket

Posted on February 21, 2012 by macromon

Note all components are above the 10-year Treasury yield.    That’s some financial repression! (click here if chart is not observable)

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China’s Financial Architecture

Posted on December 19, 2011 by macromon

Here’s what we will be reading over the holiday,  Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise, which Bloomberg named as one of the top business books of 2011.  Our sense is China’s financial sector will be on … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Housing, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Trends in U.S. Inflation

Posted on November 22, 2011 by macromon

Here is an informative chart from the BLS.   What gets lost in all the noise and doom and gloom out of Europe is the U.S. consumer price index has been running at 3.5 percent on annual basis since early spring.   … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged | 1 Comment

Disintermediation in China’s Banking System

Posted on September 26, 2011 by macromon

The consequences of negative real interest rates and financial repression.   We know how this story ends.   Keep this one on your radar. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Credit, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Is the Fed the World’s Largest Fixed-Income Hedge Fund?

Posted on June 24, 2011 by macromon

The following data is taken from Congressional testimony of the well respected banking analyst, Bert Ely, illustrates how the Federal Reserve has gone from being a taxpayer subsidized monetary authority to one of the world’s largest and most profitable bank/fixed-income … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Economics, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

Components of the Official U.S. Inflation Rate

Posted on May 18, 2011 by macromon

(click here if charts are not observable)

Posted in Economics, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , | Leave a comment