Trenta Amore!

This is beautiful bellissima….

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Macroeconomy and COVID-19

Here’s some homework and learning material for the weekend from the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation. I haven’t watched the video in full but George Magnus, who I worked with at UBS, is always a must listen and read, folks.

Posted in Coronavirus, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Fifth Order Effect Of The COVID Crisis

Markets are having a very difficult time multi-tasking during this crisis.

FT

Getting all lathered up about seeing through the first-order existential threat of survival and death — we are very grateful the curves are starting to turn — and not pricing the risks of the second, third, fourth….seventh-order effects is a dangerous proposition.

EU Existential Crisis – Fourth Order Effect

The EU has on the verge of entering another existential crisis, worse than 2011 in political terms, though they do have the ECB backing but with less firepower.

Remember that one?  The Euro was almost finished and the financial instability unleashed could have been 100x Lehman.

FT
Emmanuel Macron has warned of the collapse of the EU as a “political project” unless it supports stricken economies such as Italy and helps them recover from the coronavirus pandemic. – FT

EM Crisis – Fifth Order Effect

The emerging market (EM) crisis alone, probably about number five down the line, would have shaved 20-25 percent off the DM risk markets in a normal world.

Steven Mnuchin has defended the Trump administration’s opposition to a bid to provide IMF liquidity to emerging markets that are facing capital outflows, saying it would mostly benefit wealthier nations that do not need the support.

…But the White House is resisting a proposal to increase the allocation of a general “special drawing right” to countries, which has been backed by a number of EU and African leaders as key to the global pandemic economic response.  FT

 

All that matters is where the Fed’s bid an pass the reefer.

 

This bear market feels like it is going to play out like none other.   We are very comfortable with cash and gold.  That’s it.  We sleep well.

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments

Did You See Jackie Robinson Hit That Ball?

This one is for CK, a moral trailblazer in her own right and knows how to play and has a great long-game.

We can’t emphasize enough what a Great American Jackie Robinson and moral trailblazer #42 was.

Did you know his older brother, Mack, won a silver medal at the 1936 Berlin Olympics in the 200 meters, finishing second to Jesse Owens?

It wasn’t until 1961 Charlie Sifford became the first African-American player to earn a PGA Tour card, only because,

…under a threat by Stanley Mosk, then California attorney general and later state Supreme Court justice, to bar the tour from the state, the PGA caved in all the way, removing the “Caucasians only” clause from membership requirement.  – LA Times

That makes me be proud to be a native Californian but, as a golfer, ashamed of the sport I loved.

Jackie was also a huge fan of the young Sandy Koufax, by the way.

Jackie Robinson…clashed with Alston on many subjects including [how little the manager pitched] Koufax. – Jack Leavy, Sandy Koufax, 2002

Listen to this killer Natalie Cole rendition, Did You See Jackie Robinson Hit That Ball. 

Posted in Sports, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Jackie And The New American Hero

Never forget #42.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

IMF Growth Projections

IMF_Growth

Posted in Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

More Adventures In Bad Government That Could Kill Americans

The cut in funding to the W.H.O. doesn’t surprise us.

Does the gaslighting, blame game, attacks on globalism, and the political pettiness ever stop?

Chief Of Staff

It might help, by the way, if the new Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows had a four-year college degree,

Prior to December 2018, Meadows claimed to have received a Bachelor of Arts degree. When questions about his credentials arose during media speculation that he was under consideration to serve as White House chief of staff, Meadows amended his official House biography and other sources to indicate that his degree was an associate, not a bachelor’s. — Wikipedia

Hey,  George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, two of our greatest presidents didn’t have four-year university degrees.   Washington earned a surveyor’s license at the College of William & Mary in Virginia and Lincoln, well, you know the stories.

Most, who think on their own, can speculate why Meadows does not.  Simple Kakistocracy.

W.H.O Funding Cuts

Though we don’t know the details, the cut to WHO funding during a global pandemic is a huge mistake, in our opinion.  More Americans and our international friends could die from the seasonal flu, for example, as the organization plays a huge role in developing your annual flu shots, folks.

It’s hard to believe any of the scientists would advocate for these cuts.

CNN

(CNN) President Donald Trump announced Tuesday he is halting funding to the World Health Organization while a review is conducted.

Trump said the review would cover the WHO’s “role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of coronavirus.”

Trump’s announcement comes in the middle of the worst global pandemic in decades and as he angrily defends his own handling of the outbreak in the United States.  — CNN 

The Making Of Your Annual Flu Shots

WHO

The seasonal influenza (flu) vaccine is designed to protect against the three or four influenza viruses research indicates are most likely to spread and cause illness among people during the upcoming flu season. Flu viruses are constantly changing, so the vaccine composition is reviewed each year and updated as needed based on which influenza viruses are making people sick, the extent to which those viruses are spreading, and how well the previous season’s vaccine protects against those viruses.

More than 100 national influenza centers in over 100 countries conduct year-round surveillance for influenza. This involves receiving and testing thousands of influenza virus samples from patients. The laboratories send representative viruses to five World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centers for Reference and Research on Influenza, which are located in the following places:

  • Atlanta, Georgia, USA (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC);
  • London, United Kingdom (The Francis Crick Institute);
  • Melbourne, Australia (Victoria Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory);
  • Tokyo, Japan (National Institute for Infectious Diseases); and
  • Beijing, China (National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention).

Twice a year, the World Health Organization (WHO) organizes a consultation with the Directors of the WHO Collaborating Centers, essential regulatory laboratories and representatives of key national laboratories and academies. They review the results of surveillancelaboratory, and clinical studies, and the availability of vaccine viruses and make recommendations on the composition of the influenza vaccine. These meetings take place in February for selection of the upcoming Northern Hemisphere’s seasonal influenza vaccine and in September for the Southern Hemisphere’s vaccine. WHO recommends specific vaccine viruses for inclusion in influenza vaccines, but then each country makes their own decision about which viruses should be included in influenza vaccines licensed in their country.

In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) makes the final decision about vaccine viruses for influenza vaccines to be sold in the U.S. Information about circulation of influenza viruses and available vaccine viruses is summarized and presented to an advisory committee of the FDA in February each year for the U.S. decision about which viruses to include in the upcoming season’s vaccine.  — CDC

Upshot

With a normal government, it would be safe to assume the funding cuts were well thought out, signed off by the government’s medical scientists, and would not put Americans at risk.  This current American government is not normal so we can’t assume that.

Projection 

Where we sit the funding cuts look like a classic case of projection.

The Trump administration clearly failed in its initial reaction to the global pandemic, which we think is reflected in the second tenet of the Serenity Prayer,  which is so apropos during the lockdown.

God, grant me the Serenity, to accept the things I can not change, Courage to change the things I can, and Wisdom to know the difference.

Trump announced during his venting hour that the United States would cut funding to the World Health Organization. Emphasizing the country’s “duty to insist on full accountability,” Trump announced he would cease American funding to the WHO while a review is conducted to determine its role in “severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus.” – Intellegencer

Is Projection the Most Powerful Defense Mechanism?

Projection is a basic, self-protective defense, and a process which affects how people understand one another. When we project, we “put” part of ourselves onto other people, usually to “get rid of” something objectionable. It is as if we are throwing a part of ourselves outward and casting it, like the image from a movie projector, onto (really, into) the other person. It often plays out in relationship dysfunction, as the defensive activity bounces back and forth between us over time, operating beneath the radar without being addressed. – Psychology Today

Imperium alum.

Posted in Commodities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

How Coronavirus Broke the Global Economy – Bloomberg

Bloomberg’s Stephanie Flanders speaks to U.S. economist Adam Posen and asks how governments and economists have measured up to the challenge of the coronavirus.
Like this video? Subscribe to Bloomberg on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/Bloomberg?sub_…

Posted in Coronavirus, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

More Projections Trump Loses His Reelection Bid

I came across the following analysis and Tweet from Plural Vote today.

Plural Vote is an independent, non-partisan, data-driven news site, run by Sean Le Van. We statistically analyze elections, current events, policy decisions, and legislation in order to get to the bottom of important issues relevant to our time.

Sean looks like a Whiz Kid and aspiring political scientist from Columbia University ready to give Nate Silver a run for his money or be absorbed by 538.

We believe we posted our conclusions first (no big deal) – an only eight electoral vote difference from Plural vote– with the same number of states won.

Plural Vote claims to have run 20K model simulations with updated search trends.  We are a nit more parsimonious in our analysis.

We won’t take a victory lap, however, until about 3 AM on November 4th or walk into the Jackson Bar + Eatery to eat a plate of crow and humble pie.

Presidential Race

We suspect a Blue 1980-ish outcome in the popular vote where Trump wins around 41 percent of the popular vote (close to where he is currently polling), which is about the same percentage as President Carter won, but wins a bit more than the six states than Carter did in the electoral college.

For example, if Trump loses Michigan (65% prob), Pennsylvania (61% prob), Arizona (54% prob), and Florida (47% prob) and manages to hold all the other 26 states he took in 2016, that puts him at 228 electoral votes, well short of the 270 needed for reelection.

It’s interesting Trump leads Biden in the head-to-head contract on PreditIt but the Dems are sightly favored to take the White House.   The market pretty much is making the election outcome a toss-up.

Why is Biden trailing?  He could get ill, for example,  or step down and allow a brokered convention may to nominate Andrew Cuomo, which is now a 10 percent probability, for example.   — GMM,  April 13th

Posted in Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

How The Crisis Has Changed Consumer Spending

Consumer_Spending

 

“This is the sharpest decline in consumer spending that we have ever seen,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.

All of the charts in this article are based on a New York Times analysis of data from Earnest Research, which tracks and analyzes credit card and debit card purchases of nearly six million people in the United States. While the data does not include cash transactions, and therefore does not reflect all sales, it provides a strong snapshot of the impact of the virus on the economy.

Some companies like Walmart, Amazon and Uber Eats have seen spikes in purchases. But customers of many other businesses have simply stopped spending, the data shows.  — NY Times

Posted in Coronavirus, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment