Sector ETF Performance – October 6

ETF_DETF_WETF_Y

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Global Risk Monitor – October 6

RiskMon_1

RiskMon_2

 

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QOTD: Sheep Logic

Active central bank Narrative construction in the service of their policy goals is a permanent change in our market dynamics.  – Ben Hunt, Epsilon Theory

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Coldplay And Chris Martin At Levi

Did Coldplay last night at Levi Stadium with a couple of borderline Millennials/iGenners.   Good kids.  Gives me hope for the future if they can find a way out of all the debt and public pension obligations we boomers have stuffed them with.  Inflation?

Chris Martin puts on one heckuva of a show and seems like one great guy.   Good at reading mood of this country.  Kissed the American flag juxtaposed with a “Love” flag to close the show.  Sincere.

The song, Vida la Vida,  reminds me of us more senior traders who used to trade on the Street when trading was trading back in the day and are now up against the “machine learned” trading ‘bots.   Progress, baby!

Apropos, on the way to the stadium, in the heart of Silicon Valley,  billboards from tech companies advertising  “Artificial Intelligence” and “Machine Learning” are ubiquitous.

 

Viva la Vida

I used to rule the world
Seas would rise when I gave the word
Now in the morning I sleep alone
Sweep the streets I used to own

I used to roll the dice
Feel the fear in my enemy’s eyes
Listen as the crowd would sing
“Now the old king is dead! Long live the king!”

.

 

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Fed Chair Watch

Warsh gaining momentum in prediction markets.

Fed_watch

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COTD: Corporate Debt

No lack of supply/issuance in the corporate debt market.   No shortage of demand either.

Lots of nuances in interpreting data, however.  First, much of debt going to financial engineering, i.e., stock buybacks.  Some of the supply is borrowing against capital stuffed overseas driven by tax incentives, such as Apple.

Last, but not least,  NIRP and ZIRP – record low real interest rates.

One big concern is, given the increase in financial regulation,  who is going to make the markets and liquidity for this stuff when investors start coughing it up?

 

Corporate Debt_Oct3

(COTD = Chart of the Day)                                                          Hat Tip:  Jesse Felder

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Here Is Where The Volatility Is…

Unbelievable vol in the prediction markets over the next Fed chair.

Checked last night and Neel Kashkari, the super dove,  was over 30 cents.   John Taylor, the rules-based Stanford prof,  was up around 20 cents.   Kevin Warsh, who leans hawkish and anti-bubblista, maintains the pole position.

The selection of the next chair will be a big market moving event.  Hawk or dove?

We will try and post the graphic at the same time tomorrow to see where the market stands on the next Fed chair.

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PredictIT

 

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We Have Finally Made “The Show”

We finally made the FINGURURADAR  infographic.   Feels like we have made “the Show“.

FinGuru

 

Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You’ll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you’ll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press’ll think you’re colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob.
– Crash Davis, Bull Durham

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QOTD: Free Fallin’

I’m old enough to have lived in a country where, if you were willing to work hard, you could have a fairly nice life. You could support a family and even get a shot at owning your home but you never thought you’d get a swimming pool. Now the culture has hypnotized people into thinking they’re really nothing if they’re not wealthy and a Kardashian.  – Tom Petty,  R.I.P.

(QOTD = Quote of the Day)

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Why You Need Blogs

Here is a repost of the piece we did way back when.  More relevant today than ever as data and news have grown exponentially over the past few years.

Why Do You Need Bloggers?

To help you sift through the data:

The pace of data creation on the Internet is growing at an exponential rate. In any 48-hour period in 2010, more data was created than had been created by all of humanity in the past 30,000 years, according to a presentation by entrepreneur Yuri Milner. – WaPost

Why do we blog?   To discipline our thoughts and sharpen our framework of how we see the world.

 

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