Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – July 19

Posted on July 19, 2024 by macromon
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Leading Economic Indicators

Posted on July 18, 2024 by macromon

Updated: Thursday, July 18, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 101.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.4 percent (upwardly revised) in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year.

“The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.” – Conference Board

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The Centre Cannot Hold

Posted on July 14, 2024 by macromon

Brace yourselves.

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Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – July 12

Posted on July 12, 2024 by macromon
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The China Syndrome

Posted on July 11, 2024 by macromon

China’s population shrank by 2 million people last year, a trend that looks set to continue given the number of babies born also hit a record low. Authorities are doing what they can to turn that around, offering couples incentives to have another child and expanding public health insurance to cover assisted reproductive services. It’s unclear how much of a difference they’ve made. – Bloomberg

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FOTD: Gen AI R&D

Posted on July 9, 2024 by macromon

FOTD:  Factoid of the Day 

In 2023 alone, the Magnificent Seven – the top technology companies in the United States –allocated a combined $370 billion to research and development. That is roughly equal to the European Union’s total R&D budget (counting both businesses and the public sector).  – Dambisa Moyo, Project Syndicate

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QOTD: It’s About Winning, Stupid

Posted on July 9, 2024 by macromon

QOTD:  Quote of the Day

The jig is up, and the sooner Mr. Biden and Democratic leaders accept this, the better. We need to move forward.  – James Carville

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – July 5

Posted on July 6, 2024 by macromon

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World on Fire: David Brooks

Posted on July 4, 2024 by macromon

This 👇.  A must view.

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Sharp Drop In ISM Services Index

Posted on July 3, 2024 by macromon

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The Services PMI® fell to 48.8% in June 2024 compared to May’s reading, contracting at the fastest pace in four years. This drop reflects declines in business activity, new orders, and employment, alongside challenges in supplier deliveries and inventory management.

Key Points

  1. Overall Services PMI®: The index fell to 48.8% from 53.8% in May, marking a contraction in the services sector.
  2. Business Activity Index: came in at 49.6%, down from 61.2% in May, the first contraction since May 2020.
  3. New Orders Index: Dropped to 47.3% from 54.1% in May, indicating contraction for the first time since December 2022.
  4. Employment Index: Fell to 46.1%, a 1 percentage point decrease from May, marking the sixth contraction in seven months.
  5. Supplier Deliveries Index: Registered 52.2%, slightly down from 52.7% in May, indicating slower delivery times.
  6. Prices Index: Decreased to 56.3% from 58.1% in May, though prices continued to rise.
  7. Inventories Index: Contracted to 42.9%, a significant decrease from 52.1% in May, showing reduced inventory levels.
  8. Backlog of Orders Index: Fell to 44.0% from 50.8% in May, indicating a reduction in order backlogs.
  9. Industry Performance: Growth was reported in eight industries, including Health Care & Social Assistance, while declines were seen in Real Estate, Rental & Leasing, and Retail Trade.
  10. Respondent Comments: Indicated flat or lower business activity, stabilized but high costs, and ongoing supply chain challenges impacting various sectors.

These findings illustrate the increased volatility in the services sector, influenced by demand and supply-side issues.

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