Japan’s Childless Cat Ladies

JD is out of touch…with the world. 

We are effectively run…by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable – JD Vance

This fertility slump is in many ways the most remarkable trend of our era. – Bloomberg

Up to 42% of Japanese women born in 2005 could end up not having children in their lifetimes – Nikkei

Japan has the highest share of childless 50-year-old women among developed countries – Nikkei Asia

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The number of Japanese citizens fell at the fastest clip last year since data collection began in the 1960s, adding pressure on the nation’s social security system and shrinking labor market.

The population of Japanese nationals dropped by more than 861,000 to 121.6 million over the year to January 1, extending a streak of decline to 15 years, according to the ministry of internal affairs on Wednesday. While the foreign population increased 11% to hit 3 million for the first time, it was not enough to make up for the shortfall in Japanese nationals. The overall population shrank by 0.4%. – Bloomberg

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And it’s not just Japan. 

This fertility slump is in many ways the most remarkable trend of our era….More than half of the projected increase in the global population between 2022 and 2050 is expected to be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC], Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania…That is because already “close to half of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman.” – Bloomberg

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – July 26

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GDP Comes In Hot

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The US economy grew faster than expected last quarter, with GDP rising at a 2.8% annualized rate compared to 1.4% in the previous quarter. This growth was driven by strong consumer demand and business investment, including an outsized increase in nonfarm inventories.

Personal spending increased by 2.3%, led by health care and durable goods, such as cars and furnishings.

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite easing from Q1. Business investment grew at the fastest pace in almost a year, particularly in equipment.

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Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s AI Era | The Circuit

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Admiral McRaven As VEEP?

A heartfelt thank you to President Biden for putting the nation first. He truly deserves, and is likely to receive, the Profile in Courage Award for his decision to step aside and pass the torch to the younger generation.

We heard Admiral McRaven’s name tossed around today as a potential VEEP candidate on the new Democratic ticket.  We are huge fans of the Admiral.  For those unfamiliar with him, here is all you need to know:

He is a retired United States Navy four-star admiral who served as the ninth commander of the United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM) from August 8, 2011 to August 28, 2014… McRaven is credited for organizing and overseeing the execution of Operation Neptune’s Spear, the special ops raid that led to the killing of Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011. CIA Director Leon Panetta delegated operational and execution decisions on the raid to McRaven, who had worked almost exclusively on counter-terrorism operations and strategy since 2001.  – Wikipedia

The Admiral also penned this epic Op/Ed in the NY Times during the former president’s tenure.

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – July 19

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Leading Economic Indicators

Updated: Thursday, July 18, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 101.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.4 percent (upwardly revised) in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year.

“The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.” – Conference Board

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The Centre Cannot Hold

Brace yourselves.

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Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – July 12

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The China Syndrome

China’s population shrank by 2 million people last year, a trend that looks set to continue given the number of babies born also hit a record low. Authorities are doing what they can to turn that around, offering couples incentives to have another child and expanding public health insurance to cover assisted reproductive services. It’s unclear how much of a difference they’ve made. – Bloomberg

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