Nonlinear Thinking: Robot Run Warehouses

Here’s an interesting video clip that reinforces our view that almost all new innovation and technology is labor saving/destroying and that U.S. unemployment is much more structural than most perceive (click here to view video).   Even the military, with the advent of drones and robots, is moving to a smaller “boots on the ground” force.

There are lags in the Schumpeterian creative destruction process as the labor force has to be retrained for the new high tech economy.   It also illustrates, at least to us,  why corporate profits are at record highs while unemployment is also stuck at historically high levels.

This is the future of what the private sector is looking to employ and, unfortunately, the political economy doesn’t fully comprehend these trends and is trying to pour old wine into the new wineskin.  Trying to reinflate bubbles and the housing and stock market ghosts of Christmas past, which are the root of current macro woes,  are futile quick fix attempts in our ADD political and economic culture.

Labor policy needs more emphasis on math and science training and less quanto easing, in our opinion.  Zero percent interest rates ain’t gonna bring back these warehouse jobs and is destroying the wealth of savers and seniors who are so dependent on interest income.    We’ll have much more on this.

Stay tuned.

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Posted in Employment, Equities, Nonlinear Thinking, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

How Germany Sees the ECB’s “Bid of Last Resort”…

Interesting graphic from Der Spiegel.   Note the title, “An Endless Bond Buy?,”  which speaks volumes on the German position of ECB monetization.   Is a new Europe about to erupt onto the scene?

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The ECB Show

It all comes down to this.  Will the ECB provide the exit bid for those fleeing Italian bonds and, more importantly, will their action instill enough confidence to allow Italy to roll over existing maturities?  If it doesn’t bring back buyers of Italian bonds, will the Euro have the spectacular collapse the Germans are so afraid of?

This is the show, folks.  One of the largest sovereign debtors in the world is in trouble.  We’ve had endless debates with very smart people about the consequences of central bank monetization of sizeable maturities of sovereign debt.

We find interesting the argument that the U.S. and Japan have not, and will not, have a sovereign funding crisis because they have a central bank ready and willing to monetize any and all funding shortfalls.    If only it were that easy.   Stay tuned.

P.S.   Maybe the crisis in Italy will cause the U.S. Congress to have its Sputnik moment and develop a long-term sustainable fiscal policy.   Let’s hope so.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Exit Berlusconi

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Employment & Wage Trends in New York City

Great data from from the BLS.   The average annual wage in New York’s financial industry more than tripled from 1990 to 2009.  These numbers, even though employment in the industry declined by close to 20 percent,  makes us want to occupy Wall Street,  not in the tents but on the 33rd floor!

Because most cannot, however,  this is one of the reason they’re camped out in Zuccotti Park and no doubt the data provides them more ideological ammunition.    Stay tuned.

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Posted in Charts, Demographics, Employment | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Russia reluctant to help euro zone bailout

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

SocGen Takes €333 M Hit on Greek Exposure, Increases Loan Loss Reserves to 60%

The European banks are finally starting to face reality.   Provisioning against potential losses is the first step toward a comprehensive restructuring and final solution to the European debt crisis.   Taking losses,  suspending dividends, and limiting bonuses are painful for the banks but a necessary step in the right direction.

Societe Generale also announced it sold over €10 BN of legacy assets between July 1st and November 1st and has reduced its GIIPS [PIIGS] sovereign risk exposure to €3.4 BN.   This would never have occurred  if the banks thought the bailouts would continue without any private sector involvement.   The incrementalism of Merkel, the physicist,  continues.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Hours of Work Needed to Buy a Barrel of Oil

Another awesome piece of work from our friends over at The Chart Store.   The chart below is a times series of the numbers of hours of work — based on the average hourly wage — needed to buy a barrel of crude oil.    Given the current wage of $19.53 in October it now takes 4.7 hours of work to purchase a barrel of crude.  Add another couple of hours when Iran heats up.

The chart does illustrate how real wages whip around with the price of crude oil.  As a rule of thumb one barrel of crude (42 gallons)  produces around 20 gallons or about one tank of gasoline.   So what took 2 hours of work to fill the tank 10 years ago now takes about 5 hours.   Of course this is a simplification as other byproducts are produced from a barrel of crude,  but it is does illustrate the point.

We’ll post more of the The Chart Store’s excellent work throughout this week.

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Posted in Charts, Crude Oil | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Mr. (Bond) Market Prepares to Take Down Silvio

Remember the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis?   The bond and currency markets took down Indonesia’s Suharto regime, which survived three decades of student protests, attempted coups, and external pressure.   What tanks couldn’t do, markets did.

With G-Pap now gone Club Med is in the midst of their own Arab Spring.    Today’s jump in Italian yields with the credit curve looking to invert soon – a signal of growing default worries – is a clear call for Silvio Berlusconi’s head.   The guy is a proven survivor and has weathered 51 votes of no confidence in the Italian parliament,  but we think it’s only a matter of days, if not hours, before he goes.  Hopefully replaced by a government of technocrats (see the Big Picture for background).

If this plays out, the markets will likely rip with a nut cracking relief rally until it is clear how ready and willing the Italians are for tough austerity measures.   If no rally?   More trouble and volatility.

EcoFin should build upon Mr. B.’s exit by providing more clarity on its steroid injections into the EFSF and Super Mario should give the new government a vote of confidence by stepping up ECB purchases of Italian bonds.   Remember, this is all about restoring market confidence, which, thus far, the EU has failed miserably.

All hypothetical for now, but, in the words of the Great One, you gotta “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”  Tough markets.   Good luck.

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Robert De Niro to star as Bernie Madoff in HBO Production

The Telegraph reports that HBO has purchased the rights of the recently published book “Truth and Consequences: Life Inside the Madoff Family”  written with the help of Madoff’s son Andrew.   The biography will be the basis for the film to be produced by De Niro and his company Tribeca Productions.

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Posted in General Interest | Tagged , , | 1 Comment