Monthly Archives: January 2011

It’s Official! Western Europe Now An Emerging Market

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

The Markit SovX CEEMEA CDS index has traded through the SovX Western Europe CDS index for the first time.   Just a little over a decade ago, some of these countries in the CEEMEA were either: 1)  in hyperinflation; 2)  in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

POMO: Fed Buys $1.5 BN of 17 to 30-year Bonds

Posted on January 5, 2011 by macromon
Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Did the Russell 2000 predict the better than expected ADP?

Posted on January 5, 2011 by macromon

Did you notice the better than expected ADP employment report this morning.  It was the largest monthly jump ever in this report, with most of the jobs created in small and medium sized businesses? Recall we wrote on January 3rd … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Currency, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Apple the Sovereign (Patch)

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

We knew we should have added in our Apple the Sovereign post that market cap and cash and investments are stock variables and the GDP data are flow variables,  similar to the variables of balance sheets and those of income … Continue reading →

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Apple the Sovereign

Posted on January 4, 2011 by macromon

Apple traded at $333 in the pre-market this morning as it continues the march to overtake Exxon as the country’s largest company in terms of market capitalization.   We thought we’d share a little perspective. If Apple’s market cap were a … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Equities | Tagged , | 6 Comments

William Daley, Chief of Staff?… Excellent!

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

The Washington Post is reporting, White House officials are considering tapping William Daley, the former commerce secretary and brother of Chicago’s mayor, for a senior administration position, most likely chief of staff, people familiar with the situation said Monday. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Quote of the Day

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

“There are definitely times when you don’t want to get in front of a bullish freight train or catch a falling knife. If one doesn’t get you the other one will. The crowd is right during the trends, but wrong at … Continue reading →

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Betting on a Jobs Recovery, Christie, and Brown….

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

Like others, we can’t help but notice the massive outperformance of small caps in 2010, with the Russell 2000 doubling the performance of the S&P500. The Russell was up over 25 percent in 2010.  Isn’t this only supposed to happen … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Employment, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Politics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Nonlinear Thinking: Synthetic Palladium

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

Linear thinking dominates economics and finance and was one of root causes of the recent financial crisis.  It is clear to us, the economy and financial markets are nonlinear systems.  In hindsight,  the collapse of the financial system showed risk … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Clean Tech, Commodities, Economics, Policy, Rare Earth Elements, Technology | Tagged , | Leave a comment