We will leave the calculation for the entire stock market to the stock analysts.
Just glancing over WalMart’s latest earnings release from the week, we see two one-off macro factors that helped WalMart’s earnings in Q1, and likely are the same for most companies:
- Foreign exchange rate effect
- The tax cut
Note that almost 40 percent of WalMart’s y/y revenue growth in Q1 was due to the exchange effect, and over 1300 bps of tax cut relief. That is one-offs.
Though the dollar was weaker in Q1, it has rebounded sharply in Q2. Thus a deleterious exchange rate effect is coming to Q2 earnings. Not to mention higher gas prices and interest rates, which will negatively impact the non-energy and non—financial sectors.