The S&P500 looks hesitant to take out the key .764 Fibonacci retracement level at 2792.59 before the Fed and ECB announcements. Note the back-to-back Doji candlesticks.
When and if the swing high of the correction at 2801.90 clears, the technical case will be for a boring summer of a slow grind to challenge the all-time high at 2872.87, which is a little over 3 percent from current levels. The technicals don’t square with our fundamental case of what we suspect is coming to the bond market and interest rates, however.
As the Fed continues to turn the monetary screws, we are looking for a decent move higher in long-term interest rates. Either the market: 1) doesn’t care about an interest rate spike, as Tudor Jones believes; 2) we are entirely wrong, 3) or the market is much too complacent.