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Monthly Archives: October 2018
Free Ride Is Over: China & Japan Bailing On Treasuries
We had a request to look at the annual change in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as an addendum to our post from last night. It’s clear the two largest foreign creditors to the United States government are pulling … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Capital Flows, China, Japan, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Foreign creditors, Japan, U.S. Budget Deficits
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“The Reign Of The Middle-Aged White Men Is Over”
Yikes! Sounds like a House Of Cards, Claire… Just, maybe, it is. It’s dark but so is the real thing currently. House of Cards is one reason why NFLX is up in a down tape today — superb original content. However, … Continue reading
China and Japan Continue To Reduce Treasury Holdings
The U.S. Treasury just released the August TIC (Treasury International Capital) data at the market close. The key takeaways: China and Japan, the U.S. government’s two largest foreign creditors, continue to reduce their Treasury holdings, both down $6 billion in … Continue reading
Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing
Summary Largely ignored by the markets, Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading
FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco
The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change, remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Fed, Monetary Policy, Real Fed Funds Rate
8 Comments
Jamie And JP Mo = Class
JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon pulls out of Saudi conference https://t.co/4qwl8Z8d46 — CNBC (@CNBC) October 14, 2018
Posted in Uncategorized
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More “Cranes Of Dubai” In NYC
You heard it here first, Comrades! Just back home after a week-long road trip to many major U.S. cities. The “Cranes Of Dubai” As an economist, I am always looking for anecdotal evidence of how the local economy is doing. … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
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Week In Review – October 12
Summary Ugly week for equities Russell 2000 led the U.S. indices down, falling over 5 percent Shanghai down over 7 percent, some of which was catch up after a week close The 10-year yield rise, which triggered the equity correction, … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
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Global Macro Monitor 