A Note From A GMM Reader…

Passing on a note (email) we just received from a Global Macro Monitor (GMM) reader, who is vacationing on the beach in Mexico.   By the way, he is not a free rider.  He made a nice contribution to GMM (see donate widget on the right side of our website), which has paid for itself in multiples, including today’s trade.

I made some good scratch on your advice.  Bought SPY at 277.  Thanks.  Your politics is all off, Trump is a shoe in, but your investing instincts are pure gold — KD on the beach in Mexico,  March 4th

See our advice he is referring to right here.

We are pretty much out of the day trading business but today’s sell-off at the open was a gift, and worth 20 S&P points.  After 20 plus years of trading on Wall Street, hedge funds, and our own — everything from Russian Eurobonds to Korean equities to natural gas futures — we know gifts when we see them.

If history is any guide, given the historical start to the year, the S&P should finish March at or around 2850-ish.

We say this with great trepidation as we don’t like:  the market;  valuations; the fundamentals;  debt levels; the geopolitics;  the domestic politics;  the Fed and government/POTUS manipulation of the markets, and, especially the faux wealth and asset-driven economy.

Nevertheless, we are a better seller into strength, always hold our strong convictions weakly as we recognize we could be wrong (go figure), that markets like to go up and do go up on average, and we try not to (but not always) fight the tape.

Always looking for opportune times to get shorty.  Not yet.

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4 Responses to A Note From A GMM Reader…

  1. John Merrill says:

    Speaking of faux wealth, suggest you take a look at Fed interest payments to banks on excess reserves. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests that in 2018 JP Morgan alone received about $7 b, which would equate to about 25% of pre-tax profit. Talk about paying people not to work!.

    • Gregor says:

      Exactly. I read sometime back that excess reserves are highly concentrated in a few banks. That is why effective fed funds trades at higher end of range.

  2. Pingback: Quarter In Review – March 28 | Global Macro Monitor

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