Ursa Major waits patiently as she watches over,  in amazement, the yield chasing salmon in a panic buying frenzy over fears of NIRP, ZIRP. negative and near zero bond yields forever and ever.

The Bear on the Balcony is giving,

…them a little more room to run, setting her entry and stop levels, and placing her finger on the trigger.  Letting the market tell her when it’s time to fire.

She knows it’s close to feeding time and ready to hunt at S&P 3025-3100 or if the salmon retreat and begin to swim downstream in earnest.   But, also wise enough to remain flexible to retreat if the salmon really lose their minds and jump the 3125 S&P level, where the oxygen in the bubble becomes a little too thin to hunt or that this time is really different, where the fish know something that she doesn’t.

Ursa’s preference is to pickoff the salmon as they swim upstream to the 3100 level rather than chasing them downstream.

An Omen?

Could the Bear on the Balcony be an omen and confirmation of the major motivation of our bearish view?  That is, the tectonic plates of the western liberal international economic order, which has been in place since the end of World War ll, are breaking apart and moving in the wrong direction.  And, no, we do not mean San Francisco Liberals.

Bretton Woods

The balcony where Ursa is mapping her shorting strategy is at the same hotel that hosted the Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944, where the post-war liberal international economic order was born.  The legendary economist, John Maynard Keynes, represented the British government at the conference, which also gave birth to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Hollywood can’t make this stuff up.