Author Archives: macromon

It’s The Genes, Stupid!

Posted on December 26, 2019 by macromon

To paraphrase James Carville, strategist for then presidential candidate Bill Clinton in 1992 to explain, what we think is the epidemic currently spreading through America’s body politic.  Very disturbing. Recall we redefined the current political spectrum – fact based versus … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Buying Tops And Trump’s Race For Stock Market History

Posted on December 22, 2019 by macromon

We want to add to our last post because we believe the topic is of immense importance to the younger generations starting to save and plan for their retirements.   Note, we had a slight error in the post,  Keeping Stock … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Equity, President Trump | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Keeping Stock Market Returns In Perspective

Posted on December 20, 2019 by macromon

We just want to pass on some data to keep this year’s stock rally in perspective.  We are seeing a lot super giddy behavior out there as the S&P500 makes a new all-time high but…wait for it…at record high valuations … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Posted on December 19, 2019 by macromon

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Buy, Sell, Or Hold?

Posted on December 18, 2019 by macromon

Wow, Mr. Market at the 150-yard line again. Only the second time in history and everyone and their mother are all lathered up. The Week Before Christmas ‘Twas the week before Christmas,  when all through the House, the Dems were … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , | 1 Comment

It’s Always About The Treasury Flows

Posted on December 17, 2019 by macromon

We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings.   Our analysis may also … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The Long-Term Damage Of The Trade War

Posted on December 12, 2019 by macromon

“US farmers might not regain their market share even if a trade settlement is concluded with China.”  – South China Morning Post If you have been following the Global Macro Monitor over the past year, you know our thoughts on … Continue reading →

Posted in Trade War, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Last Central Banker With Balls

Posted on December 9, 2019 by macromon

[Balls as in courage and bravery.  Exemplified in the quote,  “Margaret Thatcher was Ronald Reagan with balls.”  Don’t get all PC on us now!] As a graduate student, I interviewed at the Federal Reserve Board in the Eccles Building on … Continue reading →

Posted in Banking, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

December 7, 1941: “We are all in the same boat now”

Posted on December 7, 2019 by macromon

Those words spoken to President Franklin Roosevelt by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill on this day 78 years ago. On December 7, 1941, at around 1:30 p.m., President Franklin Roosevelt is conferring with advisor Harry Hopkins in his study when … Continue reading →

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Why The Stock Bull Is A Big Meh For Most Americans

Posted on December 5, 2019 by macromon

Interesting piece by the FT today that only one-third of Americans feel the benefits of the great bull market.   Only 40 percent of the population realizes stocks are up for the year.  These are tough numbers for a so-called “populist” … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Equities, Quotes, Uncategorized | Tagged | 31 Comments