Author Archives: macromon

Swan Watch: Deutsche Bank Tanks

Posted on May 24, 2018 by macromon

The markets are about €0.53 away from having a Jackie Moon moment when Deutsche Bank’s stock becomes a single digit midget (non-p.c., my bad).  As per September 2016, when it traded single digits for a few nanoseconds,  we are not … Continue reading →

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Swan Watch: Italy’s New Prime Minister Faces Challenges

Posted on May 24, 2018 by macromon

The macro swans continue to gather. Giuseppe Conte says he will be the defender of the people but faces a tough political task at home and hard negotiations with Europe ► Subscribe to FT.com here: http://bit.ly/2GakujT

Posted in Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italian Yields, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The New Supply-Side Of Housing & Landlord Nation

Posted on May 23, 2018 by macromon

David Stockman tweeted the following Zero Hedge chart this morning. Clearly, a shift in the supply curve for new homes to the left. OK  – and some buying at irrational prices fueled by artificially low-interest rates and excess money.  The … Continue reading →

Posted in Housing, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 22 Comments

Nonlinear Thinking: Robotic Sailboats

Posted on May 23, 2018 by macromon

Wow, it’s been almost eight years since our first nonlinear thinking post.  How time flies. Intelligent, indestructible and with no humans on board, these sailboats are plotting their own course through the waters of San Francisco Bay.  If Richard Jenkins … Continue reading →

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Trump Plays Checkers, Xi And Kim Play 3-D Chess

Posted on May 22, 2018 by macromon

  …what Kim’s move reveals is a broader strategy at work. In the lead-up to the Singapore summit, should it still take place, Trump may be preparing for the wrong game: a two-player round of checkers when Kim is steeling … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 9 Comments

Macro Swan Watch: Deutsche Bank, Again

Posted on May 21, 2018 by macromon

Deutsche Bank (DB) stock is approaching single digits again.   Watch this space.  In 2016,  DB traded with a single digit handle for a few seconds before, we suspect, the monetary authorities stepped in. When a “too big to fail” (TBTF) … Continue reading →

Posted in Banking, Uncategorized | Tagged | 6 Comments

Political unknown as Italy’s new Prime Minister?

Posted on May 21, 2018 by macromon

Italy’s populist Five Star Movement and the far-right League have proposed Giuseppe Conte as the country’s new prime minister.… READ MORE : http://www.euronews.com/2018/05/21/po…

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Macro Swan Watch: German-Italy Sovereign Spread

Posted on May 21, 2018 by macromon

The 10-year German-Italy sovereign spread out another 26 bps today, that’s almost 70 bps wider in the month of May.   The swans continue to gather.  

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Just to be clear….

Posted on May 21, 2018 by macromon

Markets are all lathered up over a China Trade deal?  WTF? Alternatively, is the market higher because of just the cessation of hostility and talk the trade war is now  “on hold.” Whatever the case, here is the exchange with … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 21 Comments

How Sustainable Is Earnings Growth?

Posted on May 21, 2018 by macromon

Not very. We will leave the calculation for the entire stock market to the stock analysts. Here’s why: Just glancing over WalMart’s latest earnings release from the week, we see two one-off macro factors that helped WalMart’s earnings in Q1, … Continue reading →

Posted in Dollar, Earnings, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 62 Comments