Author Archives: macromon

President Biden has fully recovered from the downturn in his election prospects, as observed in the prediction markets after the Special Counsel described him as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” The rebound coincides with the recent … Continue reading →

In my early teens, I befriended a Cy Young Award-winning pitcher from the Dodgers who eschewed the celebrity culture of autograph signing. He would often advise young fans to seek autographs from their teachers instead, arguing that educators play a … Continue reading →

This is a must-view, folks. One of the most important Collective Illusions we’ve ever discovered has to do with the way that people define a successful life. It turns out the vast majority of the American public believes that most … Continue reading →

We have incorporated several AI-focused ETFs into our equity table. Additionally, observe the trend in financial conditions as indicated by the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index, detailed in the commodities table. The index’s current reading of -0.53 – measured … Continue reading →

The diverging relationship between economic performance and political success in the U.S. highlights a shift from the past, where a strong economy positively impacted incumbent approval ratings. President Biden’s approval ratings remain unaffected despite recent economic improvements, suggesting a decoupling … Continue reading →

A Bloomberg article from this morning offered an excellent array of charts detailing the shifts in interest payment flows amid rising rates. The historical anomaly was both surprising and contradicted our priors. 10 Key Points: Historical Anomaly: This is the … Continue reading →

We are putting ChatGPT to the test here, and we shall know the results by market close tomorrow. We prompted ChatGPT with the following: What is the most pervasive pattern to predict a less than -1.0 % Daily Change. ChatGPT … Continue reading →