Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Is the U.S. Becoming Japan?

Posted on September 12, 2011 by macromon

As Treasury bond yields tumble to record lows we’re hearing lots of talk the U.S. is following the economic trajectory of Japan.  Not so fast!   Take a look at the following chart. After 990 days trading days from peaking, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Global Stock Performance, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Key Support Levels

Posted on September 12, 2011 by macromon

The stock index charts in the Eurozone, especially the DAX and CAC, look extremely ugly.  A little better in the U.S., but the way markets are trading overnight these levels look they’ll be pierced like a hot knife through butter. … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

German Finance Minister Prepares for Possible Greek Bankruptcy – Spiegel

Posted on September 11, 2011 by macromon

These are the headlines at Spiegel Online, which should hit the markets like a ton of bricks offers on Monday.   Looks like Spiegel  posted the teaser to the full story to be released on Monday.    Not a great way … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

This Time is Different

Posted on September 9, 2011 by macromon

Those dreaded words you never want to hear as an investor.  But check out the Fortune Magazine graphic of this recession relative to others since the WWII.   Yes it’s a balance sheet problem and the economy needs more time to … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Demographics, Economics, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 12 Comments

European Leaders Take the Fork in the Road

Posted on September 8, 2011 by macromon

Good piece in the Economist, Europe’s debt crisis: Fudge, the final frontier, summing up the crisis in the Eurozone.   Even a little history lesson, SEPTEMBER is a cruel month in international monetary history, when regimes that once seemed inviolate … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

France Approves Greece Bailout

Posted on September 7, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not available)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: Euro Rescue Pie

Posted on September 7, 2011 by macromon

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Chart of the Day, Charts, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Time for the IMF and G20 to save Europe?

Posted on September 5, 2011 by macromon

Provocative FT piece by Barry Eichengreen & Co.  on why the IMF and G20 need to step up and help Europe save the Euro.    The article notes Europe is in a destabilizing feedback loop, The eurozone is caught in a … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Just Another Panic Monday in Euroland

Posted on September 5, 2011 by macromon

Buckle up. (click here if charts is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Greece: Where “Tax Evasion is a National Sport”

Posted on September 5, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment