Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 2

Posted on July 26, 2011 by macromon

Still no panic, but lower.  The dollar took the biggest beating and looks ready to take out its May lows.  Only T-Bonds of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse moved contrary to what we call the Armageddon trade, where gold … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Plan B: President Clinton’s 1995 Mexico Bailout

Posted on July 25, 2011 by macromon

It’s hard to fathom that the U.S. will default on its debt, but in the event Congress can’t come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, we have little doubt President Obama will circumvent Congress and invoke Section 4 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade

Posted on July 25, 2011 by macromon

The following charts illustrate today’s performance of “The Four Horsemen” of our Armageddon trade, which we posted earlier.  That is, the markets were monitoring for large concurrent moves which would signal a loss of confidence in the U.S. government and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Charts, Dollar, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

The Armageddon Trade

Posted on July 24, 2011 by macromon

Here are the four markets we do not want to see large concurrent sustained moves in the direction as illustrated. (click here if picture is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

Analysis of Greece’s “Trichet Plan” Restructuring

Posted on July 22, 2011 by macromon

We’ve done some quick analysis of Greece’s commercial bank “Trichet Plan” restructuring announced late last night (click here for term sheet) by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).   The IIF is a consortium of the world’s largest banks. Interestingly, the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

European Banks Rockin’………….

Posted on July 21, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at Germany’s Commerzbank and Barclays of the UK.   Both of their U.S. ADRs are up around 10 percent today.    Optimism over a Marshall Plan for Greece is helping the European banks and the Euro today.  The … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Chart of the Day: Ireland’s Silent Bank Run

Posted on July 20, 2011 by macromon

We found this great chart posted over at New N Economics by Rebecca Wilder.  She points out the non-financial corporates have been fleeing Irish banks since 2007 and households 2010 to the tune of 14 percent of GDP.    Irish … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Sovereign Debt and Geriatric Deadbeats

Posted on July 18, 2011 by macromon

In the spirit of our earlier post, The Clash of Generations, we point you to an interesting piece, Geiatric Deadbeats, written by Ali Alichi of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).   He argues the age of a country’s population is inversely … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

The Clash of Generations

Posted on July 18, 2011 by macromon

Thomas Friedman is “connecting the dots” in his New York Times column piece over the weekend, The Clash of Generations.    The Global Macro Monitor posted a similar piece, Connecting the Dots: The Coming War Between Generations,  back in March. During … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Demographics, Egypt, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

Nowhere to Hide…

Posted on July 16, 2011 by macromon

Larry Summers understands the risks the game Congress is playing with on lifting the debt ceiling.   Bloomberg writes, Summers said a potential default makes him worry about “runs on banks, runs on money market funds,” exchanges facing “the prospect … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments