Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Swan Lake – June 6

Posted on June 6, 2018 by macromon

The swans were relatively well behaved today.  Watch Brazil. Significant move in Italian 2-year, up 35 bps, resulting in big curve flattener.  Yields up across the board in Europe as ECB making noises QE is about to change. Mario Draghi … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Swan Lake – June 5

Posted on June 5, 2018 by macromon

Swans behaving badly + VIX down = Complacency reigns  

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Swan Lake – June 4

Posted on June 4, 2018 by macromon

The recovery in the European periphery continues. Sell-offs when markets are in bullish mode now seem to act as an centripetal force to move financial assets back to their central point of bullish with great velocity.  Similar to a gravity … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Week In Review – June 1

Posted on June 3, 2018 by macromon

Summary The week began with a spike in volatility on Italian politics, then again on Thursday on trade war fears Stocks remain resilient, firming up Friday with the solid employment numbers S&P500 continues to trade in a 40-point range, stuck … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Uncategorized, Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Swan Lake – May 31

Posted on May 31, 2018 by macromon

Italy calmer as market turns it focus on trade wars. Deutsche Bank making all-time lows as it was hammered again due to its U.S. business put on problem bank list.   DB is now getting the market’s attention but still doesn’t … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Swan Lake – May 30

Posted on May 30, 2018 by macromon

Italy’s president has attempted to broker an eleventh-hour deal between the country’s two largest populist parties to avoid another destabilising national election, helping Italian assets recover from a sell-off that rattled investors worldwide. Sergio Mattarella, who triggered this week’s crisis … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italian Yields, Italy, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Swan Lake – May 29

Posted on May 29, 2018 by macromon

We have been warning over the past few weeks that the macro swans have been gathering.  See here, here, and here. Swan Watch The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 7 Comments

Swan Watch: Deutsche Bank Tanks

Posted on May 24, 2018 by macromon

The markets are about €0.53 away from having a Jackie Moon moment when Deutsche Bank’s stock becomes a single digit midget (non-p.c., my bad).  As per September 2016, when it traded single digits for a few nanoseconds,  we are not … Continue reading →

Posted in Banking, Black Swan Watch, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Just to be clear….

Posted on May 21, 2018 by macromon

Markets are all lathered up over a China Trade deal?  WTF? Alternatively, is the market higher because of just the cessation of hostility and talk the trade war is now  “on hold.” Whatever the case, here is the exchange with … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 21 Comments

QOTD: On Risk

Posted on May 9, 2018 by macromon

Risk does not like prophets. It’s not even fond of historians. You can plan for every risk except the things that are too crazy to cross your mind. —  Morgan Housel

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Quote of the Day, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment